The School of Odds
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Arouca v CF Estrela

2026-10-11 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca (Local)

Prediction 43.49%2.30fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.48%43.42%43.54%43.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.112.152.2051.02%47.47%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.25%29.24%29.18%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.2533.90%32.07%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.37%27.34%27.28%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5332.26%30.05%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arouca (Local): 43.49%; CF Estrela (Visit): 29.21%; Draw: 27.30%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.53, with an expected value of -3.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.32%E -1.96%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.19%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-22 07:58
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.32%E -1.96%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 10:59
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.81%EV -5.62%E -2.59%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.93%EV -3.64%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 08:50
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.46%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-22 07:58
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.82%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 07:59
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.19%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-22 07:58
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.19%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-22 07:58
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 08:24
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 08:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 08:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.49%E -3.02%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 08:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.69%EV -7.36%E -3.46%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.26%EV -7.11%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -6.10%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 09:23
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -7.80%E -3.68%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-22 12:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.67%E -4.13%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.92%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-22 07:29
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.84%E -5.29%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.19%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-22 07:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -12.15%E -6.01%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-22 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.89%EV -13.02%E -6.51%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.50%EV -10.03%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.61%EV -13.19%E -4.15%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-22 07:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -13.02%E -6.51%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.28%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-22 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.67%EV -13.89%E -7.01%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.31%EV -13.83%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.02%EV -12.65%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-22 07:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.96%EV -14.76%E -7.53%K -15.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.79%EV -15.38%E -4.96%K -7.32%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-22 07:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.