Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.17
assuming max odds 3.50
assuming max odds 3.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arouca (Local): 44.34%; CF Estrela (Visit): 28.53%; Draw: 27.13%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -0.153%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.00%EV -3.77%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.00%EV -2.72%E -0.798%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.00%EV -7.50%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 15:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.97%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.87%EV -1.01%E -0.291%K -0.408%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV -3.43%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 18:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 15:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 11:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -5.99%E -2.82%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 17:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.44%EV -6.43%E -3.05%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -4.43%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 19:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.44%EV -6.43%E -3.05%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -4.43%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 19:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 18:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 19:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 19:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 19:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 19:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 15:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -5.86%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 18:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.85%EV -7.76%E -3.73%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -8.21%E -3.96%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -8.21%E -3.96%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.34%E -0.650%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 18:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -4.43%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -4.43%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 18:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 19:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 11:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 18:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -10.14%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.80%EV -10.42%E -5.16%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 10:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.31%E -5.66%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -0.153%E -0.044%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -11.31%E -5.66%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.31%E -5.66%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-11 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.00%EV -12.20%E -6.16%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.16%EV -11.02%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-11 19:12 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.06%EV -14.86%E -7.74%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-10-11 19:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.11% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39% | 1.4% | 2026-10-11 19:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43% | 2.1% | 2026-10-11 18:45 |