The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alverca v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -5.76%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.64%38.78%38.78%38.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.392.392.4343.10%41.91%41.84%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 33.84%2.95fair odd
EV -6.93%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -3.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.84%33.84%33.84%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.722.732.7537.74%36.74%36.70%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.37%3.65fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.09%27.37%27.37%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.413.403.4530.30%29.36%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 38.78%; Estoril (Visit): 33.84%; Draw: 27.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -5.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.76%E -2.37%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 03:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -5.76%E -2.37%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 03:05
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 03:05
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 03:05
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 03:05
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -5.56%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 03:05
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-04 03:05
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-04 03:05
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.70%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 03:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.70%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 03:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.70%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 03:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.70%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 03:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.70%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.93%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 03:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -8.30%E -2.48%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 03:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -8.30%E -2.48%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 03:05
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.78%EV -10.03%E -4.32%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -10.31%E -3.89%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-04 03:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.