The School of Odds
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Alverca v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 40.98%2.44fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -4.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.00%41.02%40.81%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3046.51%44.43%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 30.75%3.25fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%30.69%30.56%31.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.1036.36%33.45%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.306%
Kelly -0.428%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.29%28.63%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.253.5034.72%30.75%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 40.98%; Arouca (Visit): 30.75%; Draw: 28.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -5.74%E -2.49%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.07%E -0.306%K -0.428%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-19 17:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.74%E -2.49%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.29%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.90%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 17:00
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -6.56%E -2.88%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.14%E -2.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.83%EV -6.56%E -2.88%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.14%E -2.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 16:45
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.90%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 17:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.90%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 17:01
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.90%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 16:59
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.29%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.90%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 17:00
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.68%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:55
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.68%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.68%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.68%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:55
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.79%E -3.46%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.44%E -3.97%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 17:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.00%EV -9.83%E -4.47%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.20%EV -15.44%E -5.61%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.79%EV -18.59%E -6.46%K -9.89%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-19 17:01
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -11.88%E -5.53%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -13.90%E -4.96%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -8.14%E -2.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-19 17:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.