The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alverca v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.20%40.41%40.41%40.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.302.302.3344.84%43.56%43.48%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 30.98%3.23fair odd
EV -7.05%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.98%30.98%30.98%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.962.983.0034.72%33.73%33.61%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.60%3.50fair odd
EV -5.62%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.35%28.60%28.60%28.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.263.253.3031.75%30.71%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 40.41%; Arouca (Visit): 30.98%; Draw: 28.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -5.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -5.83%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -5.83%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 00:25
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 00:24
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 00:25
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 00:25
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.62%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 00:25
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 00:25
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.05%E -2.35%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -7.85%E -3.45%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -7.85%E -3.45%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.48%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.15%E -3.50%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -8.48%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.29%EV -9.88%E -4.43%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.19%EV -10.76%E -3.74%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -9.91%E -3.14%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.