La escuela de los momios

Alverca v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-04-24 19:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 40.97%2.44momio equitativo
EV -3.72%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -2.76%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.56%41.00%40.92%42.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.272.282.3547.62%43.99%43.86%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 30.05%3.33momio equitativo
EV -0.239%
Ventaja -0.072%
Kelly -0.103%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.02%30.11%30.00%31.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.053.003.3235.71%32.77%33.33%30.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.98%3.45momio equitativo
EV -1.46%
Ventaja -0.430%
Kelly -0.610%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.84%28.90%29.08%30.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.223.253.4034.72%31.02%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.32%EV -3.72%E -1.58%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.34%EV -0.540%E -0.163%K -0.234%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.34%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-24 02:25
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -3.72%E -1.58%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -1.46%E -0.430%K -0.610%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-20 21:44
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -4.54%E -1.95%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -4.54%E -1.95%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Pinnacle2.32I 43.10%NM 41.52%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.02%EV -0.239%E -0.072%K -0.103%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.46%EV -5.23%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-24 02:25
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 19:20
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 19:19
Grosvenor2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 16:30
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 16:31
betPARX2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -4.95%E -2.13%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 16:30
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.46%E -0.430%K -0.610%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 08:34
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:19
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:15
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:29
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:29
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 11:20
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 10:30
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 10:30
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 10:29
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 00:55
Unibet (NL)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:31
GTbets2.28I 43.86%NM 41.70%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.00%EV -4.75%E -1.50%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.30%EV -2.62%E -0.780%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 17:10
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 02:10
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 02:10
PlayUp2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 02:09
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.41%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 16:30
Bovada2.27I 44.05%NM 41.15%EV -7.00%E -3.08%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -3.84%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 02:23
BetUS2.27I 44.05%NM 41.15%EV -7.00%E -3.08%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -3.84%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 02:10
Marathon Bet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -7.41%E -3.28%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -4.45%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -7.84%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 02:10
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.84%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:20
Betclic (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.92%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.75%EV -4.75%E -1.50%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.32%EV -3.49%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:20
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 08:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 08:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 08:35
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 08:35
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.84%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 03:08
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 19:19
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 21:40
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.81%E -1.79%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 11:20
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 08:34
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 08:34
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 08:35
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 08:34
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.85%E -3.28%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 09:05
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.86%E -4.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -7.82%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.86%E -4.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas2.23I 44.84%NM 40.29%EV -8.64%E -3.87%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.19%EV -13.46%E -4.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -8.71%E -2.76%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 16:30
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -9.87%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.84%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.36%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 02:25
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.87%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.85%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-24 02:25
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -9.87%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -8.35%E -2.74%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.16%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-24 02:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -9.87%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -13.46%E -4.67%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -16.53%E -5.74%K -8.79%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 10:29
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -11.91%E -5.54%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.86%E -4.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -7.26%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.01%EV -13.96%E -6.65%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.76%EV -15.86%E -5.67%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.24%EV -11.61%E -3.81%K -5.66%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-22 11:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-04-23 23:00
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.22%2.2%2026-04-24 02:10
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 41.68%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%3.0%2026-04-24 02:10