Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Académico de Viseu v Vitória SC

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 19:31 UTC

Final: Académico de Viseu 2–1 Vitória SC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Académico de Viseu (Local)

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.350%
Kelly +0.470%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%25.89%26.03%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.563.553.9029.85%28.11%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitória SC (Visit)

Prediction 44.97%2.22fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%45.09%44.95%46.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.052.052.1651.81%48.72%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.03%3.44fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.534%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%29.02%29.02%30.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.203.4032.26%31.14%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Académico de Viseu (Local): 25.99%; Vitória SC (Visit): 44.97%; Draw: 29.03%. For Académico de Viseu (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +1.36%E +0.350%K +0.470%G +0.006%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 19:20
Pinnacle🎯3.86I 25.91%NM 25.04%EV +0.324%E +0.084%K +0.113%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.59%EV -4.65%E -2.19%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.38%EV -4.48%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 19:15
Coolbet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.24%E -0.325%K -0.441%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -1.24%E -0.325%K -0.441%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.55%E -2.64%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 19:24
GTbets🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.54%E -0.676%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%EV -9.15%E -4.53%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.73%E -0.816%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -2.54%E -0.676%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:25
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -2.54%E -0.676%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 19:20
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.83%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.55%E -2.64%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 19:06
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -3.83%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -4.35%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.30%EV -7.35%E -3.57%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -7.67%E -2.41%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 19:16
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.13%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.01%EV -5.55%E -2.64%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 19:10
Bovada🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -5.13%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.49%EV -5.10%E -2.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:24
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -2.85%E -1.32%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -2.85%E -1.32%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -1.28%E -0.377%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 19:15
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.55%E -2.64%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 19:10
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.55%E -2.64%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 19:16
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:06
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:10
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:20
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:06
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:06
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:10
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:06
Bally Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:10
betPARX🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:06
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 19:06
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 19:10
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 19:25
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.73%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.19%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 19:10
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -6.45%E -3.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 19:25
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 19:08
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 19:16
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 19:10
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 19:09
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -10.33%E -2.99%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.33%E -2.99%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.24%EV -13.20%E -6.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 19:15
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 19:10
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 19:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.70%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.94%EV -9.15%E -4.53%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 19:10
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.70%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.94%EV -9.15%E -4.53%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -7.09%E -2.22%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 19:06
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 19:15
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.15%E -4.53%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 19:06
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 19:06
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 26.51%EV -12.41%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.67%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 19:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.93%E -3.86%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.64%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -12.93%E -3.86%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.80%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -8.54%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 19:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-09-12 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-09-12 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-09-12 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-09-12 19:16
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-09-12 19:25
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-09-12 18:41