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Wisła Płock v Lech Poznań

2026-08-16 18:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wisła Płock (Local)

Prediction 20.66%4.84fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.58%20.66%20.66%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.494.514.504.5522.27%22.16%22.22%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 52.39%1.91fair odd
EV -5.71%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -7.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.03%52.39%52.39%52.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.791.791.8056.50%55.97%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.82%26.95%26.95%27.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.423.453.423.5229.24%28.96%29.24%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Wisła Płock (Local): 20.66%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 52.39%; Draw: 26.95%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.52, with an expected value of -5.14%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.75%EV -5.98%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.82%EV -5.14%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-10 06:51
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.33%EV -7.28%E -4.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -7.83%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 06:51
1xBet🎯4.49I 22.27%NM 20.74%EV -7.22%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.03%EV -6.23%E -3.48%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.23%EV -7.83%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-10 06:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.