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Wisła Płock v Lech Poznań

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wisła Płock (Local)

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV -6.60%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.48%22.78%22.78%23.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.943.954.1026.67%25.37%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -5.80%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -7.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.93%54.14%54.14%54.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.711.711.7458.82%58.37%58.65%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.08%4.33fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%23.08%23.08%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.804.2027.78%25.97%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wisła Płock (Local): 22.78%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 54.14%; Draw: 23.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -3.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -6.60%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -3.06%E -0.729%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 18:15
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -6.60%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.89%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -9.98%E -2.56%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:18
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.88%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -12.29%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-11 19:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -11.16%E -2.86%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -12.29%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 18:05
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -13.44%E -3.54%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.29%E -3.23%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 15:20
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -14.58%E -3.89%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -16.91%E -4.70%K -6.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-13 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.