Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wisła Płock v Cracovia Kraków

Inicio: 2026-09-13 10:15 UTC

Final: Wisła Płock 3–1 Cracovia Kraków

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wisła Płock (Local)

Predicción 34.22%2.92momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -0.623%
Kelly -0.956%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.86%34.34%34.27%36.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.622.622.8741.67%38.11%38.17%34.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cracovia Kraków (Visitante)

Predicción 37.52%2.67momio equitativo
EV +1.30%
Ventaja +0.482%
Kelly +0.766%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.38%37.34%37.52%38.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.472.7043.48%40.14%40.49%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.26%3.54momio equitativo
EV -1.09%
Ventaja -0.311%
Kelly -0.435%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.93%28.32%28.20%30.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.223.253.5033.33%31.04%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Wisła Płock (Local): 34.22%; Cracovia Kraków (Visitante): 37.52%; Empate: 28.26%. Para Cracovia Kraków (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.67. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 09:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 09:31
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV +1.30%E +0.482%K +0.766%G +0.010%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.91%EV -16.16%E -6.60%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.38%EV -1.32%E -0.504%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.98%E -3.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 09:31
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.95%EV -16.85%E -6.93%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -2.45%E -0.942%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -10.98%E -3.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 09:35
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -1.09%E -0.311%K -0.435%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -5.89%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -15.22%E -5.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -17.87%E -7.45%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.66%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 09:31
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -17.87%E -7.45%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.66%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 09:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -17.87%E -7.45%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.66%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 09:31
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -17.87%E -7.45%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.66%EV -4.33%E -1.70%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 09:31
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.57%EV -1.79%E -0.623%K -0.956%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.93%EV -4.70%E -1.85%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.50%EV -4.48%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 10:01
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -5.89%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 09:40
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 09:40
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 09:41
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.20%E -2.48%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 09:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -2.81%E -0.991%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -6.95%E -2.80%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 10:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -2.81%E -0.991%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -6.95%E -2.80%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 10:01
BetUS🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -2.81%E -0.991%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -6.95%E -2.80%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 10:01
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.15%EV -7.33%E -2.97%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 09:46
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.93%EV -6.58%E -2.41%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.65%EV -7.70%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -7.87%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.93%EV -6.58%E -2.41%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.65%EV -7.70%E -3.13%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -7.87%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 10:01
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -4.18%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.33%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 10:01
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 09:41
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 10:00
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 09:46
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 09:44
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 09:56
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.08%E -3.30%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 09:45
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -5.89%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.74%EV -8.45%E -3.46%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 10:00
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 10:10
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 10:10
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 09:51
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -5.33%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 09:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.27%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.56%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 10:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 10:01
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.12%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.32%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 09:40
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 10:01
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -9.95%E -4.15%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 09:41
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -11.08%E -4.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-13 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -10.34%E -3.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -11.08%E -4.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-13 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -5.89%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -11.83%E -5.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.98%E -3.49%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.37%EV -12.74%E -5.00%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.62%EV -12.58%E -5.40%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.00%EV -11.54%E -3.69%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 09:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.05%EV -12.05%E -4.69%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.72%EV -12.96%E -5.58%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -12.39%E -4.00%K -5.90%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-13 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -13.71%E -5.96%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 09:46
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -14.45%E -5.78%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -13.71%E -5.96%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-13 10:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.99%2.78I 35.97%NM 36.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 29.01%-0.1%2026-09-13 10:11
Matchbook◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.20%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.53%0.1%2026-09-13 10:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-09-13 10:05
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.93%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.92%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.15%3.0%2026-09-13 09:51