Language:English
Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Śląsk Wrocław (Local)
Prediction 21.76%4.59fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.711%
Kelly +0.900%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.82%21.74%21.72%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.284.204.7526.67%23.36%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lech Poznań (Visit)
Prediction 55.26%1.81fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.41%55.35%55.28%57.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.641.651.7465.36%60.86%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.97%4.35fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.282%
Kelly -0.367%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.91%23.00%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.3026.67%25.07%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Śląsk Wrocław (Local): 21.76%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 55.26%; Draw: 22.97%. For Śląsk Wrocław (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +3.38%E +0.711%K +0.900%G +0.030% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -9.92%E -6.09%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -3.51%E -0.835%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +0.112%E +0.024%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.58%E -7.24%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -5.81%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 15:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -2.06%E -0.459%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -13.24%E -8.43%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -2.06%E -0.459%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.42%EV -13.79%E -8.84%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -9.25%E -2.34%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.60%EV -3.37%E -0.759%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.12%EV -3.84%E -2.21%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.28%EV -5.35%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -4.24%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -6.05%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -1.21%E -0.282%K -0.367%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -4.24%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.71%E -4.62%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.81%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -4.24%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.15%EV -14.34%E -9.25%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-03 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -4.24%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.15%EV -14.34%E -9.25%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -4.24%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.15%EV -14.34%E -9.25%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -5.33%E -1.23%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.51%EV -7.71%E -4.62%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -5.76%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.16%EV -6.61%E -3.91%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -6.42%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.50%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.81%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 15:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -6.42%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -5.50%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -6.42%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -5.50%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 15:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -6.42%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -6.61%E -3.91%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 15:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -6.61%E -3.91%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -7.71%E -4.62%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.24%EV -8.26%E -4.98%K -12.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-10 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-10 15:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-10 15:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.23%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -9.25%E -2.34%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.23%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -9.25%E -2.34%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -8.59%E -2.05%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.13%EV -8.81%E -2.10%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.53%EV -7.71%E -4.62%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.34%EV -4.66%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-10 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -10.77%E -2.63%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -6.61%E -3.91%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -10.77%E -2.63%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -9.37%E -5.71%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -5.81%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -10.77%E -2.63%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.83%EV -7.16%E -4.26%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -13.85%E -3.69%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.33%EV -10.77%E -2.63%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.35%EV -12.69%E -8.03%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.32%EV -13.85%E -3.69%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.68%EV -11.86%E -2.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 55.22%EV -12.13%E -7.63%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-10 15:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.28%EV -11.86%E -2.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.33%EV -15.45%E -10.10%K -29.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -11.55%E -3.00%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -7.71%E -4.62%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -6.05%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -6.05%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -6.05%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.82%E -5.34%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -12.70%E -3.34%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -12.95%E -3.24%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -13.85%E -3.69%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-10 15:18 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.03%E -3.55%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.48%EV -9.37%E -5.71%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -10.40%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 15:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.36%EV -18.39%E -4.90%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.74%EV -11.58%E -7.24%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -8.10%E -2.03%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-10-10 15:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.27% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.52% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.77% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.73% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 15:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 15:25 |