Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Radomiak Radom v Piast Gliwice

Inicio: 2026-09-14 17:01 UTC

Final: Radomiak Radom 0–2 Piast Gliwice

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Radomiak Radom (Local)

Predicción 38.57%2.59momio equitativo
EV -3.19%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.70%38.56%38.54%40.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.372.382.5145.45%42.26%42.02%39.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Piast Gliwice (Visitante)

Predicción 34.88%2.87momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -1.48%
Kelly -2.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.54%34.93%34.89%36.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.642.632.7541.67%37.88%37.95%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.55%3.77momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.478%
Kelly -0.655%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.91%26.52%26.58%28.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.433.453.7031.25%29.15%29.03%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Radomiak Radom (Local): 38.57%; Piast Gliwice (Visitante): 34.88%; Empate: 26.55%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.77. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.70, con un valor esperado de -1.77%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.33%EV -3.19%E -1.27%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.24%EV -4.78%E -1.75%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.43%EV -3.36%E -0.924%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 16:46
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.98%EV -3.57%E -1.43%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.43%EV -6.52%E -2.43%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.60%EV -5.22%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -3.57%E -1.43%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -15.04%E -4.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.06%EV -4.34%E -1.75%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.96%EV -5.82%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 16:36
BetUS🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.06%EV -4.34%E -1.75%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.96%EV -5.82%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.26%EV -5.11%E -2.08%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -5.82%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:00
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.50%E -2.25%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 16:39
Bovada🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.19%EV -7.04%E -2.92%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.13%EV -8.62%E -3.29%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 16:35
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:46
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:46
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:45
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:46
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:45
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 16:46
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.82%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 14:24
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-14 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.87%EV -7.92%E -3.00%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.76%EV -8.67%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 16:45
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -8.62%E -3.29%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -8.62%E -3.29%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -8.62%E -3.29%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 16:31
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.43%E -3.10%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 16:35
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -8.62%E -3.29%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 16:40
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 16:39
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 16:39
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 14:25
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.67%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-14 16:46
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.25%EV -8.20%E -3.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -12.80%E -5.12%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -13.72%E -4.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-14 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.74%EV -8.59%E -3.62%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.65%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -9.36%E -3.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -5.82%E -2.16%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -1.77%E -0.478%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 17:00
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -9.36%E -3.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 16:31
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -9.36%E -3.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -11.06%E -3.30%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 16:35
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.94%EV -10.51%E -4.53%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -11.06%E -3.30%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:19
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-14 16:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-14 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 14:25
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -11.06%E -3.30%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.29%E -4.91%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -8.27%E -3.14%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -12.06%E -5.29%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -12.06%E -5.29%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 16:46
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -12.06%E -5.29%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 16:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -12.06%E -5.29%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.52%EV -12.44%E -5.48%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.98%EV -12.80%E -5.12%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-14 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -13.21%E -5.87%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -12.80%E -5.12%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-14 17:00
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.75%EV -13.21%E -5.87%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.33%EV -16.29%E -6.79%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-14 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.11%EV -15.14%E -6.88%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.94%EV -9.31%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -9.73%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-14 16:31
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-09-14 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.32%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-09-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.32%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-09-14 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.23%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-09-14 16:56
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-14 16:46
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.18%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.41%2.3%2026-09-14 16:50