Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Radomiak Radom v Górnik Zabrze

Inicio: 2026-08-08 12:45 UTC

Final: Radomiak Radom 1–3 Górnik Zabrze

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Radomiak Radom (Local)

Predicción 34.96%2.86momio equitativo
EV -2.11%
Ventaja -0.752%
Kelly -1.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.15%34.96%34.94%36.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.662.652.8042.02%37.57%37.74%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Górnik Zabrze (Visitante)

Predicción 37.16%2.69momio equitativo
EV -3.38%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.22%37.19%37.21%38.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.452.452.6043.86%40.79%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.87%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.44%
Ventaja -0.697%
Kelly -0.976%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.58%27.85%27.85%29.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.52%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Radomiak Radom (Local): 34.96%; Górnik Zabrze (Visitante): 37.16%; Empate: 27.87%. Para Radomiak Radom (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.86. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.80, con un valor esperado de -2.11%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.37%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.89%EV -5.61%E -2.21%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.74%EV -3.28%E -0.944%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 12:30
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -9.69%E -3.99%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -9.69%E -3.99%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -9.69%E -3.99%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -9.69%E -3.99%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 12:20
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 12:20
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 12:20
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 12:19
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -2.11%E -0.752%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 12:20
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -2.44%E -0.697%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 12:34
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 12:25
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -11.55%E -4.85%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 12:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -12.67%E -5.39%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.41%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -12.67%E -5.39%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.41%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -3.85%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -12.67%E -5.39%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.41%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -4.90%E -1.80%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.33%EV -6.35%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 12:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -4.90%E -1.80%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.33%EV -6.35%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 12:30
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.60%E -2.07%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -3.83%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 12:30
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.32%EV -5.95%E -2.21%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.82%EV -4.12%E -1.60%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.86%EV -4.95%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 12:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.69%EV -6.65%E -2.49%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.90%EV -6.72%E -2.68%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -9.13%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 12:40
BetUS🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.60%EV -6.65%E -2.49%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.40%EV -8.21%E -3.32%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 12:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -7.35%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.23%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 11:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -7.35%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 12:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -7.35%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 12:34
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -7.35%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 12:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.29%EV -7.35%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.70%EV -15.27%E -6.70%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -12.20%E -3.87%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 12:25
Bovada🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 34.91%EV -7.70%E -2.92%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -7.84%E -3.16%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 12:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -8.05%E -3.06%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 12:34
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -6.35%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 11:40
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -6.35%E -2.52%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 11:39
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 12:40
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 12:19
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 12:29
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -8.40%E -3.21%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.23%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 11:45
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 12:23
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 12:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 12:35
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -9.41%E -2.89%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 12:30
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.26%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -12.67%E -5.39%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 12:35
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -9.10%E -3.50%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -16.38%E -5.46%K -8.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 12:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -10.85%E -4.25%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 11:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.13%EV -11.89%E -4.72%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -11.55%E -4.85%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.67%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 12:18
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -12.59%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 11:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -12.59%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.59%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -12.59%E -5.04%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.06%EV -12.67%E -5.39%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-08 12:35
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.86%EV -16.79%E -7.05%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.55%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -8.01%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-08 11:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.47%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-08-08 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.47%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-08-08 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.47%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-08-08 12:35
Matchbook◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.47%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.76%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-08-08 12:40
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-08-08 12:35
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.38%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.69%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%1.7%2026-08-08 12:30