The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Motor Lublin v Zagłębie Lubin

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:00 UTC

Final: Motor Lublin 2–2 Zagłębie Lubin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motor Lublin (Local)

Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.18%47.54%47.35%51.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.951.952.0656.50%51.28%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zagłębie Lubin (Visit)

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV +0.675%
Edge +0.177%
Kelly +0.240%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%26.34%26.46%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.423.403.8131.75%29.24%29.41%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.16%3.82fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.691%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.07%26.11%26.19%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7530.30%28.69%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motor Lublin (Local): 47.42%; Zagłębie Lubin (Visit): 26.42%; Draw: 26.16%. For Zagłębie Lubin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.675%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.33%EV -5.64%E -2.84%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.24%EV +0.675%E +0.177%K +0.240%G +0.002%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.42%EV -4.78%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-23 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.09%EV -16.07%E -9.08%K -20.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV +0.411%E +0.108%K +0.147%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 14:31
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.96%EV -6.12%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.02%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.02%EV -4.52%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:59
BetUS🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:58
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.89%EV -8.49%E -4.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 15:53
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.43%EV -9.91%E -5.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.42%EV -4.35%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.14%EV -7.92%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 11:59
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.21%E -0.867%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 15:10
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 15:59
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.17%E -2.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -1.90%E -0.507%K -0.691%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 12:07
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.12%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 12:00
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -6.12%E -3.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 15:07
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV -8.01%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 15:12
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.75%E -2.83%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 12:00
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.76%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 12:00
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.76%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 11:59
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -8.49%E -4.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 15:49
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -8.49%E -4.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 15:48
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 14:13
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:45
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -8.49%E -4.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 15:29
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 11:52
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 11:51
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -2.32%E -1.13%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-23 15:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%EV -8.01%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -7.13%E -2.01%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.80%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 11:52
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.12%EV -11.81%E -6.35%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.80%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.32%EV -12.89%E -3.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-23 15:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.14%EV -12.28%E -6.64%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -12.80%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-23 12:07
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.29%EV -15.60%E -8.76%K -20.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.05%EV -12.80%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.66%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-23 15:35
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.44%E -4.94%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -14.12%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-23 12:07
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.00%EV -9.91%E -5.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -14.12%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 11:59
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -13.23%E -7.23%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -14.12%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.38%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-23 06:54
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -5.17%E -2.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -15.44%E -4.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.68%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.98%EV -15.44%E -4.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.06%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-23 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.43%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -16.76%E -5.32%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-23 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.43%EV -7.54%E -3.87%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -16.76%E -5.32%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-23 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.01%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -16.76%E -5.32%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.01%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -16.76%E -5.32%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-10-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-10-23 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-10-23 15:50
Matchbook◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-10-23 15:59
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%1.7%2026-10-23 15:45
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-10-23 14:43