Language:English
Motor Lublin v Raków Częstochowa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motor Lublin (Local)
Prediction 29.62%3.38fair odd
EV -5.21%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.31%29.62%29.62%30.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.2035.71%32.44%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raków Częstochowa (Visit)
Prediction 42.95%2.33fair odd
EV -6.36%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -5.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.81%42.95%42.95%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.112.152.1850.51%47.29%46.51%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.43%3.65fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%27.43%27.43%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.343.353.4531.75%29.97%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motor Lublin (Local): 29.62%; Raków Częstochowa (Visit): 42.95%; Draw: 27.43%. For Motor Lublin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -5.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.21%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.21%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.21%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.21%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.69%E -2.13%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.34%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.69%E -2.13%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.34%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.69%E -2.13%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.34%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.69%E -2.13%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.34%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.69%E -2.13%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -7.22%E -3.34%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.75%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.18%E -2.64%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.18%E -2.64%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.18%E -2.64%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.93%EV -8.08%E -3.78%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -8.18%E -2.64%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.99%EV -8.94%E -4.22%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -8.18%E -2.64%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.99%EV -8.94%E -4.22%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -9.66%E -3.17%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -9.80%E -4.67%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -9.49%E -2.88%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.14%E -3.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.98%EV -11.09%E -5.36%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -10.86%E -3.34%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-03 16:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.14%E -3.71%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -11.95%E -5.83%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -12.23%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-03 16:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.12%EV -12.62%E -4.28%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.35%EV -11.95%E -5.83%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.12%E -2.42%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.31%EV -12.62%E -4.28%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.67%EV -14.95%E -7.55%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.02%EV -12.23%E -3.82%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 29.38%EV -13.21%E -4.51%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.47%EV -14.95%E -7.55%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 27.15%EV -13.06%E -4.12%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.28%EV -17.06%E -6.09%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 42.81%EV -14.95%E -7.55%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.91%EV -13.61%E -4.32%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-04-06 19:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.