La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Legia Warszawa v Raków Częstochowa
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Legia Warszawa (Local)
Predicción 43.48%2.30momio equitativo
EV -0.867%
Ventaja -0.380%
Kelly -0.677%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.19%43.40%43.68%45.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.852.132.152.2854.05%46.94%46.51%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Raków Częstochowa (Visitante)
Predicción 28.18%3.55momio equitativo
EV +0.036%
Ventaja +0.010%
Kelly +0.014%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.10%28.30%27.96%30.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.953.203.153.5533.90%31.26%31.75%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.34%3.53momio equitativo
EV -3.64%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.20%28.31%28.36%29.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.233.253.4034.72%30.93%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.34%EV -5.65%E -2.60%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV +0.036%E +0.010%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.55%EV -4.49%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.42%EV -3.48%E -1.57%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.37%E -0.392%K -0.549%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.04%EV -5.91%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.42%EV -3.48%E -1.57%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.37%E -0.392%K -0.549%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.04%EV -5.91%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Coolbet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| DraftKings | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -5.06%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-22 19:10 |
| FanDuel | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 18:44 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Bovada | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.09%EV -9.13%E -4.37%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |
| BetUS | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.09%EV -9.13%E -4.37%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.19%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.95%EV -8.26%E -3.91%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.43%EV -4.75%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.62%EV -8.17%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 19:09 |
| 1xBet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.49%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.60%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.73%EV -8.17%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.01%E -2.12%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-22 18:44 |
| Fanatics | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.01%E -2.12%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 18:44 |
| Bet Victor | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.01%E -2.12%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 19:08 |
| SportsBet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.01%E -2.12%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 18:14 |
| Bet Right | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| PlayUp | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -9.56%E -4.60%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -8.42%E -2.59%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-22 18:44 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -9.83%E -3.07%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |
| Unibet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -0.867%E -0.380%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -0.867%E -0.380%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -0.867%E -0.380%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -0.867%E -0.380%K -0.677%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Betsson | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 18:19 |
| NordicBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -11.24%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| BetRivers | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.17%E -0.965%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Casumo | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.17%E -0.965%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Grosvenor | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.17%E -0.965%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| betPARX | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.17%E -0.965%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -2.17%E -0.965%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| 888sport | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:14 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.06%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 44.54%EV -16.08%E -8.33%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-03-22 19:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -12.64%E -4.08%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -18.38%E -6.38%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 28.85%EV -13.49%E -4.39%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 27.94%EV -10.16%E -3.20%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 18:48 |
| TABtouch | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.19%EV -3.04%E -1.36%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -14.05%E -4.61%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -5.22%E -2.39%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 44.98%EV -19.56%E -10.57%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.74%EV -15.46%E -5.15%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.28%EV -13.56%E -4.45%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.28%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -16.87%E -5.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -16.87%E -5.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.54% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50% | 0.2% | 2026-03-22 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 0.6% | 2026-03-22 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 18:25 |
| Smarkets | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.06% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.77% | 2.2% | 2026-03-22 18:20 |
| Kalshi | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13% | 3.1% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |