The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 58.37%1.71fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -9.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.67%58.25%58.32%59.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.601.6166.67%63.29%62.70%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Piast Gliwice (Visit)

Prediction 18.62%5.37fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.424%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.92%18.60%18.70%19.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.934.955.2522.22%20.28%20.20%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.808%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.57%23.15%22.98%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.954.004.2027.78%25.33%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 58.37%; Piast Gliwice (Visit): 18.62%; Draw: 23.00%. For Piast Gliwice (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -6.02%E -3.74%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.56%EV -5.39%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.88%EV -5.24%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 17:25
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -6.02%E -3.74%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -10.61%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-03 04:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -6.02%E -3.74%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -10.61%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-03 04:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -6.02%E -3.74%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -10.61%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-03 04:14
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -6.60%E -4.13%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.22%E -0.424%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.40%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV -6.60%E -4.13%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -10.61%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.15%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 05:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV -6.60%E -4.13%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -10.61%E -2.21%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.15%E -2.32%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 05:54
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.07%EV -7.18%E -4.52%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -8.74%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.00%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.35%EV -8.35%E -5.32%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -3.16%E -0.607%K -0.751%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.70%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 17:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -8.35%E -5.32%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.88%E -1.38%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -5.70%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 17:14
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.35%E -5.32%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.88%E -1.38%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.00%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-01 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.12%EV -9.52%E -6.14%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -5.02%E -0.984%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.00%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 17:05
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -10.69%E -6.98%K -20.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -6.88%E -1.38%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -8.00%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 17:03
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.44%E -8.29%K -24.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -16.19%E -3.60%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -17.20%E -4.78%K -6.61%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-01 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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