The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lech Poznań v GKS Katowice

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 58.23%1.72fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -9.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%58.23%58.23%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.621.621.6261.73%61.73%61.73%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

GKS Katowice (Visit)

Prediction 19.73%5.07fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%19.73%19.73%19.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.784.784.784.7820.92%20.92%20.92%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.04%4.54fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%22.04%22.04%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.284.284.284.2823.36%23.36%23.36%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 58.23%; GKS Katowice (Visit): 19.73%; Draw: 22.04%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.28, with an expected value of -5.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.23%EV -5.67%E -3.50%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.73%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.04%EV -5.67%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.