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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa

Início: 2026-09-19 12:45 UTC

Final: Korona Kielce 3–2 Raków Częstochowa

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Korona Kielce (Local)

Previsão 44.32%2.26odd justa
EV -4.70%
Vantagem -2.19%
Kelly -4.09%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.43%44.38%44.38%45.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.932.052.052.1551.81%48.79%48.78%46.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Raków Częstochowa (Visitante)

Previsão 28.77%3.48odd justa
EV -2.18%
Vantagem -0.640%
Kelly -0.907%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.43%28.77%28.68%29.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.223.203.4033.90%31.02%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.90%3.72odd justa
EV +0.893%
Vantagem +0.238%
Kelly +0.325%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.50%26.84%26.94%28.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.413.403.7530.77%29.31%29.41%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Korona Kielce (Local): 44.32%; Raków Częstochowa (Visitante): 28.77%; Empate: 26.90%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.72. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.75, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.893%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.53%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV +0.893%E +0.238%K +0.325%G +0.003%4.6%2026-09-17 16:00
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 12:45
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.51%EV -4.70%E -2.19%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.31%EV -2.75%E -0.814%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.29%E -1.50%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.70%E -2.19%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-16 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 12:50
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:55
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:51
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:51
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:51
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:51
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:51
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -2.18%E -0.640%K -0.907%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 06:15
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 18:51
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-16 02:34
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 18:51
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -9.37%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-18 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -12.25%E -4.02%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 18:10
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.52%EV -7.81%E -3.75%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.40%EV -6.20%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -7.99%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.68%EV -8.69%E -4.22%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.41%EV -6.78%E -2.09%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.91%EV -7.99%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -6.03%E -2.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -6.03%E -2.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:50
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -6.03%E -2.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:49
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-17 01:06
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 19:50
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.37%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 09:56
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.37%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 18:10
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 12:55
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 12:54
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 06:09
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -12.68%E -6.44%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 18:51
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-16 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -15.12%E -5.13%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-16 18:10
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -7.81%E -3.75%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 17:48
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -8.69%E -4.22%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -12.25%E -4.02%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 18:15
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -13.57%E -6.96%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-15 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.97%EV -12.68%E -6.44%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.58%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-18 12:54
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -7.81%E -3.75%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.21%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.99%EV -12.25%E -4.02%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-16 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.58%EV -14.01%E -7.22%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-15 18:51
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.58%EV -14.01%E -7.22%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-15 18:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.70%EV -14.46%E -7.49%K -15.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-15 18:51
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.70%EV -14.46%E -7.49%K -15.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-15 18:55
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-17 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-17 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -6.92%E -3.30%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-17 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 01:05
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.14%E -4.46%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.81%E -3.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 01:05
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -11.35%E -5.68%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-17 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.94%EV -11.80%E -5.93%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.91%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-17 17:49
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 44.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.01%0.1%2026-09-18 13:30
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.28%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.06%2.6%2026-09-18 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%7.8%2026-09-18 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%7.8%2026-09-18 14:30
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%7.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 43.16%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%8.3%2026-09-18 14:35