Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jagiellonia Białystok v Pogoń Szczecin

2026-08-16 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

41%

31%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jagiellonia Białystok (Local)

Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd

EV -4.72%

Edge -2.05%

Kelly -3.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.16%41.44%41.43%41.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.242.252.3046.51%44.62%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pogoń Szczecin (Visit)

Prediction 30.82%3.24fair odd

EV -2.90%

Edge -0.922%

Kelly -1.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.92%30.99%30.82%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.932.923.1537.04%34.14%34.19%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd

EV -0.103%

Edge -0.029%

Kelly -0.040%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.42%27.57%27.75%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.353.353.6032.26%29.84%29.81%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jagiellonia Białystok (Local): 41.43%; Pogoń Szczecin (Visit): 30.82%; Draw: 27.75%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.604. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.600, with an expected value of -0.103%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.72%E -2.05%K -3.63%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.103%E -0.029%K -0.040%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-09 18:55
FanDuel🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.72%E -2.05%K -3.63%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-09 18:49
Pinnacle🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.73%EV -5.96%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%EV -2.90%E -0.922%K -1.35%G +0.000%	3.36I 29.76%NM 28.19%EV -6.76%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-09 23:15
betfred_uk🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.79%E -3.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -11.23%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.36%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-09 18:50
SportsBet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -6.79%E -3.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.04%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-09 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯	2.21I 45.25%NM 41.97%EV -8.45%E -3.82%K -6.98%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -8.43%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-09 23:05
Paddy Power🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.86%E -4.03%K -7.38%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.43%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-08-09 18:49
Sky Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -10.93%E -5.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -16.77%E -6.21%K -9.87%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -13.98%E -4.51%K -6.66%G +0.000%	15.8%	2026-08-09 18:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.