The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Górnik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 19:30 UTC

Final: Górnik Zabrze 0–0 Legia Warszawa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Górnik Zabrze (Local)

Prediction 46.75%2.14fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.873%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.25%46.89%47.00%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.982.002.1055.56%50.54%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Legia Warszawa (Visit)

Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV +5.34%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.092%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%25.56%25.53%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.523.504.1031.75%28.44%28.57%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.56%3.63fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.49%27.55%27.47%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.303.5032.26%30.13%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Górnik Zabrze (Local): 46.75%; Legia Warszawa (Visit): 25.69%; Draw: 27.56%. For Legia Warszawa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -10.72%E -5.61%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV +5.34%E +1.30%K +1.72%G +0.092%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-30 19:29
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.40%EV -6.98%E -3.51%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV +2.77%E +0.692%K +0.922%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.52%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-30 19:25
BetUS🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.40%EV -6.98%E -3.51%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV +2.77%E +0.692%K +0.922%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.52%EV -3.53%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-30 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -11.18%E -5.89%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV +0.198%E +0.051%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -12.59%E -6.73%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV +0.198%E +0.051%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-30 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -15.86%E -8.81%K -19.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV +0.198%E +0.051%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-30 19:15
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -10.25%E -5.34%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -2.37%E -0.624%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.67%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-30 19:28
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -12.59%E -6.73%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -2.37%E -0.624%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-30 19:25
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.46%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.11%EV -2.89%E -0.763%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.43%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 19:29
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -3.66%E -0.975%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-30 19:25
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -13.52%E -7.31%K -15.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -3.66%E -0.975%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -14.56%E -4.70%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.94%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-30 19:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.94%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-30 19:15
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.94%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-30 19:15
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.47%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -4.94%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 19:29
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.47%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -4.94%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 19:28
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.18%EV -10.72%E -5.61%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.14%EV -5.97%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 19:15
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.51%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.17%E -2.03%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-30 19:14
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.17%E -2.03%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 19:10
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -5.57%E -2.76%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-30 19:15
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -5.57%E -2.76%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-30 19:15
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 19:10
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-30 19:25
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -9.78%E -5.07%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-30 19:15
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -9.31%E -4.80%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-30 19:25
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -14.46%E -7.90%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -10.08%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-30 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -11.36%E -3.29%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -8.38%E -4.27%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -12.65%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 19:15
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -8.85%E -4.54%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.65%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.72%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -12.65%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-30 19:29
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.873%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.91%E -1.42%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.35%EV -14.92%E -8.20%K -18.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.72%EV -13.93%E -4.16%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.93%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-30 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.08%EV -11.18%E -5.89%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.29%EV -14.45%E -4.34%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.62%EV -12.63%E -3.98%K -5.82%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-30 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -15.22%E -4.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-30 19:10
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -15.22%E -4.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-30 19:10
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.33%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -17.79%E -5.56%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -9.04%E -2.74%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-30 19:10
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.39%EV -5.57%E -2.76%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -17.79%E -5.56%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-30 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.17%EV -12.12%E -6.45%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -17.79%E -5.56%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.71%EV -10.42%E -3.21%K -4.63%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-30 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -19.07%E -6.05%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -19.07%E -6.05%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -19.07%E -6.05%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.25%EV -6.51%E -3.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -19.07%E -6.05%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -11.80%E -3.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-30 19:25
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-10-30 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-10-30 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%1.9%2026-10-30 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%1.9%2026-10-30 19:25
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%2.9%2026-10-30 19:25

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