The School of Odds
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GKS Katowice v Lech Poznań

2026-11-22 13:45 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

GKS Katowice (Local)

Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.51%31.05%31.02%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.943.0537.04%34.65%34.01%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 44.48%2.25fair odd
EV -5.69%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.75%44.40%44.48%44.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.062.1254.05%49.26%48.43%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.50%4.08fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.91%24.55%24.50%25.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.663.603.9530.30%27.32%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: GKS Katowice (Local): 31.02%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 44.48%; Draw: 24.50%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -3.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.40%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -5.69%E -2.68%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -3.22%E -0.816%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-09 15:25
1xBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.54%EV -7.47%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -5.67%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-09 15:24
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.52%EV -7.92%E -3.82%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.90%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-09 16:22
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -7.47%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-09 14:30
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -8.51%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -7.47%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-09 14:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.41%EV -9.13%E -3.11%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.68%EV -8.36%E -4.06%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -5.67%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-09 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.76%EV -10.68%E -3.71%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -11.03%E -5.52%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -13.02%E -3.67%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-09 14:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.16%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.06%EV -11.03%E -5.52%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-09 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.76%EV -16.26%E -6.02%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.75%EV -12.81%E -6.54%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%16.6%2026-11-09 14:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.51%EV -16.26%E -6.02%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 44.53%EV -17.70%E -9.57%K -20.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.96%EV -19.15%E -5.80%K -8.33%G +0.000%21.4%2026-11-09 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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