Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tromso v Molde

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00 UTC

Final: Tromso 2–0 Molde

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tromso (Local)

Prediction 49.48%2.02fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.32%49.37%49.52%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.881.9757.14%53.10%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Molde (Visit)

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.294%
Kelly -0.390%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.50%24.52%24.43%25.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.703.604.0429.41%27.01%27.78%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.06%3.84fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -0.825%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.11%26.05%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.61%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tromso (Local): 49.48%; Molde (Visit): 24.46%; Draw: 26.06%. For Molde (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.04, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -2.53%E -1.28%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 11:35
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.57%E -0.965%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 13:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:35
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -3.02%E -1.54%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 11:35
GTbets🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.07%EV -3.52%E -1.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.35%EV -3.88%E -0.986%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-10 14:09
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -3.52%E -1.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 14:34
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%EV -4.51%E -2.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.98%EV -1.19%E -0.294%K -0.390%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -2.27%E -0.605%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 14:14
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -4.51%E -2.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.09%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -5.00%E -2.60%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-10 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -5.00%E -2.60%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-10 12:04
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.05%EV -5.49%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.05%EV -4.35%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 14:34
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.49%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -5.83%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 12:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.49%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 12:04
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.49%E -2.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 14:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 12:05
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-10 12:04
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -5.99%E -3.15%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 14:34
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.71%EV -6.48%E -3.43%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-10 12:04
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%EV -6.98%E -3.71%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.87%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 14:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -6.98%E -3.71%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -6.98%E -3.71%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 14:10
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -6.98%E -3.71%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.16%E -0.541%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.09%EV -7.47%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.89%EV -4.12%E -1.05%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 14:34
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.47%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 12:04
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -7.47%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 14:06
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.68%EV -7.47%E -4.00%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -10.73%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.09%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -7.97%E -4.28%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 12:05
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 14:09
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 12:05
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 14:33
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.27%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -10.09%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 11:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-10 14:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.46%E -4.57%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -16.84%E -4.95%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.00%E -4.24%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 11:34
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -8.96%E -4.87%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -10.09%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.18%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 14:15
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.07%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 14:14
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.07%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 12:04
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 12:05
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 14:09
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.45%E -5.17%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-10 11:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.75%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -15.62%E -4.53%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-10 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -10.94%E -6.08%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -19.21%E -6.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-10 12:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.94%EV -12.92%E -7.34%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.21%EV -11.21%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 14:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.62%EV -13.41%E -7.66%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.92%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-10 14:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-05-10 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-05-10 14:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-05-10 14:14
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-05-10 14:34
Smarkets1.97I 50.76%NM 50.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-05-10 14:20