The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 12:30 UTC

Final: Sarpsborg FK 0–3 Rosenborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Prediction 39.81%2.51fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.348%
Kelly -0.582%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.27%39.67%39.83%41.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.312.302.4948.78%43.23%43.48%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rosenborg (Visit)

Prediction 35.16%2.84fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.814%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.64%35.26%35.07%38.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.622.7841.67%38.11%38.17%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV +0.122%
Edge +0.031%
Kelly +0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%25.07%25.10%26.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.654.0029.41%27.51%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 39.81%; Rosenborg (Visit): 35.16%; Draw: 25.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.995. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.122%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.93%EV -2.26%E -0.814%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +0.122%E +0.031%K +0.041%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-18 11:35
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.44%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.96%EV -4.02%E -1.47%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.60%EV -2.88%E -0.743%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.87%EV -0.867%E -0.348%K -0.582%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.98%EV -5.43%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14%EV -3.63%E -0.944%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 12:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -4.88%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 07:39
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -4.88%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%EV -6.48%E -2.44%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.60%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 18:24
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.28%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 18:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.67%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.93%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.14%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 06:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.51%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.86%EV -4.37%E -1.61%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 12:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.51%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.86%EV -4.37%E -1.61%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 12:14
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.51%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.86%EV -4.37%E -1.61%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 12:15
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.51%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.86%EV -4.37%E -1.61%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 12:14
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -7.24%E -3.11%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 08:30
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.27%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.05%EV -15.62%E -6.51%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 12:19
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 12:18
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.42%EV -7.39%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 18:20
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.09%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.93%EV -7.19%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 24.99%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 10:20
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39%EV -1.27%E -0.510%K -0.855%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -5.78%E -2.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 12:14
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.33%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -8.64%E -2.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -2.46%E -1.00%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 12:14
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-18 12:13
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 12:09
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -6.83%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-16 18:25
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 08:30
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 08:30
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 09:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.19%EV -13.61%E -6.27%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.98%EV -7.54%E -2.87%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 12:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.33%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 18:20
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%EV -14.40%E -6.70%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%EV -15.62%E -6.51%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -9.89%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-18 12:19
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.23%EV -11.22%E -5.03%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -11.14%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 08:30
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 12:14
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 12:13
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-18 12:14
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 12:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 12:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 08:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 08:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%EV -18.38%E -8.97%K -17.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.64%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-18 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 12:10
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 12:10
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -8.59%E -3.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 12:10
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -14.90%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.06%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-10-18 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-18 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-18 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-18 12:25
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.63%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.82%1.9%2026-10-18 12:25