The School of Odds
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Sarpsborg FK v Aalesund

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 16:00 UTC

Final: Sarpsborg FK 2–1 Aalesund

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Prediction 50.01%2.00fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%50.13%50.01%52.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.821.831.9359.52%54.87%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aalesund (Visit)

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.653%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.99%26.96%26.96%28.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.453.7733.33%28.98%28.99%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.99%4.35fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.539%
Kelly -0.705%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.34%22.92%23.03%23.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.004.2526.67%24.77%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 50.01%; Aalesund (Visit): 27.00%; Draw: 22.99%. For Aalesund (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -3.49%E -1.81%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.75%EV +1.81%E +0.480%K +0.653%G +0.012%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.97%EV -6.89%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-25 15:56
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -11.49%E -6.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.461%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 15:23
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%EV -3.49%E -1.81%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.25%EV -0.352%E -0.096%K -0.131%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.57%EV -5.51%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-25 15:50
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.96%EV -3.99%E -2.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 15:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 15:50
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 15:50
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.56%EV -13.49%E -7.80%K -18.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 15:23
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.56%EV -13.49%E -7.80%K -18.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 15:23
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.99%E -3.19%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.69%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.78%EV -4.13%E -0.991%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 15:56
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.49%E -3.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 15:12
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.38%EV -14.49%E -8.47%K -20.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 15:23
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -5.99%E -3.19%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.03%EV -6.99%E -3.76%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.38%EV -8.50%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 15:56
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -8.49%E -4.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -12.49%E -7.14%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -3.44%E -0.820%K -1.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 15:57
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.63%EV -15.99%E -9.52%K -23.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 15:23
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.63%EV -15.99%E -9.52%K -23.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 15:23
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.63%EV -15.99%E -9.52%K -23.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 15:23
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -6.49%E -3.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.05%EV -6.02%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.62%EV -4.36%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 15:50
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.87%EV -7.99%E -4.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -6.83%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 15:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -3.44%E -0.820%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 15:41
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 15:47
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.49%E -2.35%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 15:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -2.29%E -0.539%K -0.705%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 15:50
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -5.99%E -3.19%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 15:50
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.49%E -3.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 15:50
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.64%E -3.33%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -9.99%E -5.55%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -8.18%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -12.64%E -3.33%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-25 15:05
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.17%EV -5.49%E -2.90%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 15:12
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 15:55
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 15:55
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -7.49%E -4.05%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -11.49%E -2.98%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 15:15
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -9.99%E -5.55%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.88%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -13.79%E -3.68%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 15:23
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.13%EV -10.99%E -6.17%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.29%EV -11.69%E -3.58%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -9.19%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82%EV -5.99%E -3.19%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.23%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 15:48
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.94%EV -6.99%E -3.76%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -12.23%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -9.19%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 15:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.41%EV -7.99%E -4.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -5.74%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 15:41
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.49%E -4.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 15:12
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.49%E -4.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 15:12
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.49%E -4.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 15:12
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.49%E -4.64%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -10.34%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 15:12
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.99%E -5.55%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-25 15:50
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.55%EV -9.99%E -5.55%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -9.19%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.54%EV -14.49%E -8.47%K -20.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -13.58%E -4.25%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.45%EV -11.49%E -2.98%K -4.03%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-25 15:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -8.99%E -4.94%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -14.93%E -4.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 15:41
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.21%EV -14.99%E -8.82%K -21.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.45%EV -18.99%E -6.33%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%EV -8.04%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-25 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%0.3%2026-10-25 15:57
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%0.3%2026-10-25 15:57
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-10-25 15:57
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-10-25 15:41
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-10-25 15:57