Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom v Molde

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lillestrom (Local)

Prediction 40.45%2.47fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.453%
Kelly +0.756%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.53%40.29%40.49%41.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.302.5047.62%43.00%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Molde (Visit)

Prediction 35.45%2.82fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.914%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.41%35.69%35.34%38.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.542.542.7543.48%39.36%39.37%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.10%4.15fair odd
EV +0.243%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.64%24.01%24.17%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.813.854.1628.99%26.25%25.97%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lillestrom (Local): 40.45%; Molde (Visit): 35.45%; Draw: 24.10%. For Lillestrom (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.31%EV +1.13%E +0.453%K +0.756%G +0.009%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.13%EV -8.54%E -3.31%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-11 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 16:00
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:54
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:54
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:54
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 16:00
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV +0.324%E +0.131%K +0.219%G +0.001%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.30%EV -13.86%E -5.70%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 16:00
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -1.29%E -0.530%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.60%EV -7.48%E -2.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.25%EV -5.06%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 16:08
Coolbet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.98%EV -1.70%E -0.699%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.66%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.35%EV +0.243%E +0.058%K +0.077%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-11 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.11%EV -3.72%E -1.56%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.65%EV -9.96%E -3.92%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.24%EV -7.47%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 16:04
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.65%EV -3.72%E -1.56%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.13%EV -16.69%E -7.10%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.22%EV -10.84%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 15:54
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -2.51%E -0.914%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.65%EV -1.44%E -0.353%K -0.467%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-11 17:00
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.70%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -2.51%E -0.914%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 16:54
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 16:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -3.61%E -0.903%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -13.15%E -5.37%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -3.61%E -0.903%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.64%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.13%EV -17.76%E -7.65%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%EV -12.05%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-11 15:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.64%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.13%EV -17.76%E -7.65%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%EV -12.05%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-11 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.64%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.13%EV -17.76%E -7.65%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%EV -12.05%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-11 16:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.96%EV -6.15%E -2.65%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.68%EV -2.87%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 17:09
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.96%EV -6.15%E -2.65%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.68%EV -2.87%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-11 17:09
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.62%EV -6.15%E -2.65%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.90%EV -4.29%E -1.59%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.56%EV -2.87%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 17:04
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.08%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -4.29%E -1.59%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -4.82%E -1.22%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 17:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 17:00
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 17:09
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.12%E -2.72%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 17:09
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -3.61%E -0.903%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 16:44
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.88%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -9.60%E -3.77%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 17:09
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -6.96%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 16:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.32%EV -8.58%E -3.79%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.05%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -10.84%E -2.93%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -4.29%E -1.59%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.02%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 17:09
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 17:09
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 17:04
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.60%E -3.77%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.69%EV -7.23%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 16:53
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -12.05%E -3.30%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-11 16:50
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.71%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -13.15%E -5.37%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.25%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 16:34
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.25%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 16:34
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.25%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 16:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -8.98%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -13.25%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 16:34
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.46%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.43%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 17:09
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -7.12%E -2.72%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-11 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 16:54
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.33%EV -11.38%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -13.25%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 17:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.44%EV -11.00%E -5.00%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.41%EV -13.15%E -5.37%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.15%EV -16.87%E -4.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-11 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.61%EV -13.03%E -6.06%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.98%EV -10.12%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 16:53
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.44%EV -15.05%E -7.17%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.92%EV -18.47%E -8.03%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -9.64%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-11 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.25%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-10-11 17:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-11 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-11 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.35%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-10-11 17:10
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.80%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-10-11 17:10