Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK v Tromso

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK (Local)

Prediction 33.06%3.02fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.98%33.01%33.10%33.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.802.9038.17%35.79%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tromso (Visit)

Prediction 39.05%2.56fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.480%
Kelly -0.794%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.09%39.12%39.07%42.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.362.382.5348.78%42.45%42.02%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.89%3.58fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.69%27.86%27.83%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.4632.26%30.43%30.30%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fredrikstad FK (Local): 33.06%; Tromso (Visit): 39.05%; Draw: 27.89%. For Tromso (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.53, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%EV -4.13%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.38%EV -1.21%E -0.480%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -3.76%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-11 12:19
Pinnacle🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.51%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.43%EV -1.60%E -0.637%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.07%EV -3.76%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-11 12:10
GTbets🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.68%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.02%EV -7.85%E -3.33%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.30%EV -3.49%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 00:15
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.20%EV -4.79%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.25%EV -2.39%E -0.954%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.55%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.79%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.16%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -4.79%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 12:04
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -4.79%E -1.66%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.74%E -3.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 12:04
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.21%EV -5.12%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.75%EV -3.95%E -1.60%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -5.16%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 12:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.26%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -3.17%E -1.28%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.26%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -3.17%E -1.28%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:04
BetAnything🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.26%EV -5.45%E -1.91%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -3.17%E -1.28%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 12:05
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 12:14
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:09
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 12:05
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:50
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:14
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 12:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 12:09
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -5.78%E -2.03%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:24
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.43%E -2.65%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.16%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -7.43%E -2.65%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.44%EV -9.80%E -4.24%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 12:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.96%EV -7.43%E -2.65%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.68%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.37%EV -8.79%E -2.69%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-11 12:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -7.43%E -2.65%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.32%EV -19.96%E -9.73%K -19.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-11 12:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.16%E -1.52%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 12:04
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 12:05
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 12:09
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.24%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.64%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.55%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-11 12:05
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -8.24%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -10.74%E -3.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 12:04
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 18:50
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.53%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.53%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.53%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 12:04
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.09%E -3.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.53%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 12:04
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 12:08
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-11 12:04
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.74%E -3.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-11 12:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -7.07%E -2.97%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.74%E -3.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-11 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -7.95%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.11%EV -10.98%E -4.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -10.74%E -3.36%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -13.53%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 12:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.13%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-10 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.13%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-10 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -10.74%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -12.13%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 10:00
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -12.39%E -4.68%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -10.19%E -4.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 12:04
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.37%EV -13.38%E -5.11%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.74%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.90%EV -9.34%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-11 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-11 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-11 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-11 12:25
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-10-11 12:20
Smarkets◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.99%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.63%1.2%2026-10-11 12:20