Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:15 UTC

Final: Fredrikstad FK 1–1 Sarpsborg FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fredrikstad FK (Local)

Prediction 37.01%2.70fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.650%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.31%37.02%37.02%38.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.502.7543.48%40.06%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.38%36.39%36.31%38.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6743.48%39.54%39.22%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.889%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%26.59%26.68%27.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.453.6630.77%29.12%28.99%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fredrikstad FK (Local): 37.01%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 36.31%; Draw: 26.68%. For Fredrikstad FK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.31%EV +1.79%E +0.650%K +1.02%G +0.018%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.08%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.61%EV -2.63%E -0.721%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 15:45
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.35%EV -4.13%E -1.60%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.23%EV -3.05%E -1.14%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.43%EV -2.37%E -0.646%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-13 16:46
GTbets🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.89%EV -4.13%E -1.60%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.48%EV -9.95%E -4.01%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.63%EV -6.90%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 15:45
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.15%EV -4.87%E -1.90%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.82%EV -5.03%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 17:06
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 16:50
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:46
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:45
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:49
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:46
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:30
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:30
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:28
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 16:26
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -5.61%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.45%EV -5.98%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.76%EV -3.42%E -1.28%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:36
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.45%EV -5.98%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.76%EV -3.42%E -1.28%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:45
BetAnything🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.45%EV -5.98%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.76%EV -3.42%E -1.28%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:46
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.13%EV -7.09%E -2.83%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 17:10
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:05
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -3.78%E -1.43%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:05
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:40
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:46
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 16:40
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 16:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 16:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -8.21%E -3.31%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.54%EV -9.59%E -3.85%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 16:46
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 17:06
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 17:03
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 16:45
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:00
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 16:40
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -11.04%E -4.51%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -10.06%E -4.14%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -10.06%E -4.14%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -10.06%E -4.14%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 16:26
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 17:06
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -5.59%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.63%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 16:40
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -7.41%E -2.91%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -12.86%E -5.36%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 16:45
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -11.91%E -5.00%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -16.49%E -7.17%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-13 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -13.02%E -5.54%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:50
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -13.02%E -5.54%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -10.64%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 17:06
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -14.87%E -6.46%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.22%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.44%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-09-13 17:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-13 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-13 17:11
Matchbook◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.62%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-13 17:10
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.49%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.0%2026-09-13 17:10