The School of Odds
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Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK

2026-10-11 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund (Local)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.80%39.04%38.79%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.4646.51%43.78%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 36.71%2.72fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.62%36.71%36.61%37.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6143.48%40.88%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.12fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -0.756%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.86%24.24%24.60%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.654.0029.41%27.22%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aalesund (Local): 39.04%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 36.71%; Draw: 24.24%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -3.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -3.95%E -1.61%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.58%EV -4.18%E -1.60%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.61%EV -5.93%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-21 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -6.30%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.63%EV -6.75%E -2.66%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.61%EV -8.36%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 15:49
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.30%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.22%E -3.29%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 15:19
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.22%E -3.29%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -3.02%E -0.756%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 15:23
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 38.80%EV -8.64%E -3.69%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -8.22%E -3.29%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -11.51%E -3.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 15:19
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -10.20%E -4.43%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.66%EV -8.22%E -3.29%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -5.45%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 15:24
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.20%E -4.43%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -10.05%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -7.87%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-21 15:24
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -10.20%E -4.43%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%EV -10.05%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.53%EV -11.51%E -3.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-21 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.02%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.59%EV -11.89%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.72%E -3.53%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 15:19
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.17%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.21%EV -12.62%E -5.30%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.62%EV -15.15%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-21 15:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.63%EV -13.73%E -5.84%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.25%EV -13.93%E -3.92%K -5.46%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-21 15:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 39.54%EV -14.88%E -6.83%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.62%EV -11.16%E -4.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 24.84%EV -15.87%E -4.57%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-21 15:18
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.87%EV -16.06%E -7.47%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -15.56%E -6.77%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -9.08%E -2.42%K -3.30%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-21 15:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.26%EV -16.06%E -7.47%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.92%EV -13.73%E -5.84%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.82%EV -17.57%E -5.17%K -7.32%G +0.000%18.5%2026-09-21 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.