Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund (Local)

Prediction 42.51%2.35fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.10%42.47%42.58%44.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.192.202.3250.76%45.59%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 32.61%3.07fair odd
EV -0.551%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.66%32.51%35.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.782.753.0540.00%36.02%36.36%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.761%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.86%24.87%24.91%26.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.703.9028.57%27.06%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aalesund (Local): 42.51%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 32.61%; Draw: 24.88%. For Sarpsborg FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -0.551%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -1.37%E -0.590%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.68%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:04
Coolbet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.40%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.05%EV -1.20%E -0.397%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-11 14:09
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.85%EV -3.07%E -1.35%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.02%EV -2.83%E -0.951%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.14%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 14:54
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.44%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.37%EV -3.81%E -1.29%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.19%EV -5.70%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-11 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.17%EV -4.79%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:10
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 14:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -15.22%E -5.86%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-11 14:05
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -4.35%E -1.93%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -15.22%E -5.86%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-11 14:09
GTbets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.82%EV -4.77%E -2.13%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.34%EV -8.38%E -2.98%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.85%EV -6.20%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 14:15
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.35%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.80%EV -0.877%E -0.288%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.85%EV -3.22%E -0.826%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-11 14:45
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.10%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -16.85%E -6.61%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 14:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.551%E -0.180%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.551%E -0.180%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 14:55
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.551%E -0.180%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 14:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 14:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 14:54
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 14:44
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 14:45
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 14:15
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 14:49
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.28%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.75%EV -16.85%E -6.61%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -11.67%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 14:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.28%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.75%EV -16.85%E -6.61%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -11.67%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 14:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.28%EV -6.47%E -2.94%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.75%EV -16.85%E -6.61%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.96%EV -11.67%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.51%EV -6.90%E -3.15%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.33%EV -6.09%E -2.12%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.33%EV -6.90%E -3.15%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -3.81%E -1.29%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -2.97%E -0.761%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 14:49
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 14:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.67%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 14:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 14:49
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.60%E -4.00%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -13.59%E -5.13%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-11 14:09
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -9.87%E -4.66%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.07%E -2.48%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 14:10
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 14:54
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.45%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 14:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 14:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -8.70%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 14:45
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -11.96%E -4.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-11 14:54
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -10.72%E -5.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -12.92%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-11 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.83%EV -11.57%E -5.56%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.63%EV -10.98%E -4.02%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.54%EV -9.68%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 14:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.79%EV -12.85%E -6.27%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -5.44%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -2.97%E -0.761%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -14.97%E -7.49%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.29%EV -18.48%E -7.39%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-11 14:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.18%EV -16.25%E -8.25%K -16.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.65%EV -10.33%E -3.76%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-11 14:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-10-11 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-10-11 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-10-11 14:45
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-10-11 14:40
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.59%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%1.5%2026-10-11 14:55