The School of Odds
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Willem II v FC Zwolle

Kickoff: 2026-11-06 19:00 UTC

Final: Willem II 1–1 FC Zwolle

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Willem II (Local)

Prediction 33.26%3.01fair odd
EV +4.77%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%33.21%33.17%34.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.833.1540.00%35.30%35.40%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Zwolle (Visit)

Prediction 39.78%2.51fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.706%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.54%39.82%39.85%41.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.312.302.4748.78%43.23%43.48%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV -0.253%
Edge -0.068%
Kelly -0.094%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.13%26.97%26.98%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.423.403.7032.79%29.25%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 33.26%; FC Zwolle (Visit): 39.78%; Draw: 26.96%. For Willem II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 31.10%EV +4.77%E +1.52%K +2.22%G +0.106%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-06 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 31.10%EV +4.77%E +1.52%K +2.22%G +0.106%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-06 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 31.10%EV +4.77%E +1.52%K +2.22%G +0.106%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.1%2026-11-06 18:45
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.19%EV +2.44%E +0.794%K +1.18%G +0.029%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.05%EV -6.91%E -2.95%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.76%EV -6.72%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-06 18:54
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.216%E -0.072%K -0.108%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-06 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.216%E -0.072%K -0.108%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-06 18:45
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.216%E -0.072%K -0.108%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-06 18:45
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -1.88%E -0.637%K -0.964%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-06 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -1.88%E -0.637%K -0.964%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -11.29%E -5.06%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-06 18:45
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.45%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.90%EV -11.29%E -5.06%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-06 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-06 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-06 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-06 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -4.21%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.28%EV -1.74%E -0.706%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 27.03%EV -3.22%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-06 18:50
BetUS🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -4.21%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-06 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -4.21%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.64%EV -8.90%E -3.89%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -7.26%E -2.11%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-06 18:40
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -4.54%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.95%EV -5.72%E -2.41%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-06 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -4.54%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.95%EV -5.72%E -2.41%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-06 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.92%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.73%E -1.54%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.253%E -0.068%K -0.094%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-06 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.92%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.73%E -1.54%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.253%E -0.068%K -0.094%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-06 18:45
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.92%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.73%E -1.54%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.253%E -0.068%K -0.094%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-06 18:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.05%EV -3.73%E -1.54%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-06 18:45
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-06 18:40
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-06 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-06 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-06 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.06%EV -13.28%E -6.09%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-06 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.15%EV -5.21%E -1.83%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.10%EV -14.07%E -6.52%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.74%EV -13.73%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-06 18:45
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.82%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.13%EV -3.73%E -1.54%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-06 18:50
picklebet_au🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-06 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-06 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-06 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-06 18:50
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -2.95%E -0.819%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-06 18:49
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.63%EV -5.72%E -2.41%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-06 18:54
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-06 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.52%E -2.77%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-06 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-06 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 18:40
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 18:40
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -6.87%E -2.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 18:40
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.66%EV -7.53%E -2.71%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.15%EV -4.93%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.20%EV -7.26%E -2.11%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-06 18:50
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.32%E -2.24%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.64%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-06 18:45
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-06 18:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-06 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.87%EV -9.53%E -3.50%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.28%EV -11.69%E -5.26%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.85%EV -10.23%E -3.07%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-06 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-06 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -6.99%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-06 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-06 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.04%E -3.34%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-06 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -10.19%E -3.78%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -13.73%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-06 18:48
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.58%EV -12.52%E -4.76%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -10.49%E -4.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-06 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -13.52%E -5.20%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-06 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.97%EV -15.18%E -5.95%K -9.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.38%EV -12.48%E -5.67%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.65%EV -12.38%E -3.81%K -5.50%G +0.000%15.4%2026-11-06 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 32.90%EV -16.85%E -6.74%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.13%EV -18.45%E -9.00%K -17.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 26.97%EV -17.78%E -5.83%K -8.67%G +0.000%21.6%2026-11-06 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-11-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-11-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-11-06 18:55
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-11-06 18:55
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.76%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.8%2026-11-06 18:55
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-11-06 18:55

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