The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Willem II v FC Volendam

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 16:45 UTC

Final: Willem II 1–2 FC Volendam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Willem II (Local)

Prediction 39.75%2.52fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.22%39.78%39.78%40.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4445.45%42.75%42.55%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Volendam (Visit)

Prediction 32.27%3.10fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.844%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.43%32.25%32.21%32.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.892.903.0235.71%34.57%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.98%3.57fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.587%
Kelly -0.822%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%27.97%28.01%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.353.5032.26%30.32%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 39.75%; FC Volendam (Visit): 32.27%; Draw: 27.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -2.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.66%EV -3.02%E -1.24%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.04%EV -2.55%E -0.844%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-20 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.61%E -1.92%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -6.42%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.25%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.61%E -1.92%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -7.07%E -2.45%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.25%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.99%EV -5.40%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -6.42%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -2.06%E -0.587%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 16:28
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.89%EV -5.40%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.81%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.85%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 16:30
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -5.80%E -2.45%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.42%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.85%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-20 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -5.80%E -2.45%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.42%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.85%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-20 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.59%E -2.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.24%EV -5.78%E -1.98%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.85%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 16:39
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.59%E -2.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.42%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.65%E -2.32%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 16:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.58%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.07%E -2.45%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -13.25%E -4.27%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-20 16:40
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.58%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.07%E -2.45%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -13.25%E -4.27%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-20 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.58%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.07%E -2.45%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -13.25%E -4.27%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-20 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.58%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.07%E -2.45%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -13.25%E -4.27%K -6.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-20 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.57%E -4.70%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.05%E -2.79%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-20 16:39
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.65%E -2.32%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-20 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.