Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.59
assuming max odds 6.25
assuming max odds 4.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 60.75%; Willem II (Visit): 17.74%; Draw: 21.52%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.85%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.09%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +10.85%E +1.74%K +2.07%G +0.224% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%EV -1.01%E -0.220%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.09%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65%EV +10.85%E +1.74%K +2.07%G +0.224% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%EV -1.01%E -0.220%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.24%EV -6.45%E -4.19%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.58%EV +10.85%E +1.74%K +2.07%G +0.224% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%EV -1.01%E -0.220%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV +1.98%E +0.344%K +0.416%G +0.008% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.39%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV +1.98%E +0.344%K +0.416%G +0.008% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.39%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV +1.98%E +0.344%K +0.416%G +0.008% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.39%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.91%EV -4.02%E -2.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.69I 17.57%NM 16.91%EV +0.914%E +0.161%K +0.195%G +0.002% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.18%EV -6.61%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.70%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.53%EV -0.683%E -0.122%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -8.54%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-17 17:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-17 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-17 18:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.24%E -3.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.98%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.83%EV -6.82%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 18:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.98%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.83%EV -6.82%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 18:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -5.24%E -3.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 18:42 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.14%EV -6.45%E -4.19%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -6.82%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.73%EV -6.45%E -4.19%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.36%EV -7.67%E -5.04%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-17 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.67%EV -9.49%E -6.37%K -19.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -2.46%E -0.447%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -8.54%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.85%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.68%EV -6.39%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -5.24%E -3.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.85%EV -4.23%E -0.783%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.01%EV -3.41%E -2.15%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.70%EV -4.41%E -0.818%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.29%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.01%EV -3.41%E -2.15%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.70%EV -4.41%E -0.818%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.29%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.01%EV -3.41%E -2.15%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.70%EV -4.41%E -0.818%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.29%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.29%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.69%EV -5.12%E -0.956%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.65%EV -6.45%E -4.19%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 5.33I 18.76%NM 17.52%EV -5.47%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.82%EV -7.90%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.45%EV -11.92%E -8.22%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.81%EV -6.00%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.73%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.45%EV -11.92%E -8.22%K -26.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.81%EV -6.00%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.73%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -5.24%E -3.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.32%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.49%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.65%EV -6.82%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.45%EV -7.67%E -5.04%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 17:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.67%E -5.04%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -5.32%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-17 17:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -7.67%E -5.04%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -8.27%E -5.48%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -6.89%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.54%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.21%EV -3.41%E -2.15%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.08I 19.69%NM 18.84%EV -9.90%E -1.95%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.95%EV -1.66%E -0.363%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -4.02%E -2.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -4.63%E -2.95%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.16%E -0.703%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 18:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.06%E -4.61%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-17 16:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.06%E -4.61%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-17 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.06%E -4.61%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-17 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.62%E -2.29%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-17 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.32%E -2.26%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.92%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 18:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.13%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.16%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-17 18:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.37%EV -10.10%E -6.82%K -21.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -14.87%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.02%EV -8.54%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 18:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -14.87%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -16.07%E -4.12%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-17 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -15.76%E -3.32%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -6.82%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-17 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.33%EV -12.53%E -8.70%K -28.47%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.48%EV -16.64%E -3.54%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.19%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.67%EV -7.67%E -5.04%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -18.42%E -4.00%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -5.32%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -8.88%E -5.92%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -20.19%E -4.49%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.03% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11% | 0.5% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.18% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.80% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02% | 0.9% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.73% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50% | 1.0% | 2026-10-17 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74% | 1.1% | 2026-10-17 18:45 |