Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 6.50
assuming max odds 1.53
assuming max odds 5.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 17.30%; Ajax (Visit): 63.03%; Draw: 19.67%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.78. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.42%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.06%EV +12.42%E +1.91%K +2.26%G +0.280% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.12%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +2.28%E +0.439%K +0.544%G +0.012% | 2.2% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 15.06%EV +12.42%E +1.91%K +2.26%G +0.280% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.12%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%EV +2.28%E +0.439%K +0.544%G +0.012% | 2.2% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.99%EV +12.42%E +1.91%K +2.26%G +0.280% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -7.34%E -4.99%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.74%EV +2.28%E +0.439%K +0.544%G +0.012% | 2.6% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.11I 16.37%NM 15.75%EV +5.67%E +0.929%K +1.11%G +0.063% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.16%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.09%EV -5.78%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-25 15:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV +3.77%E +0.629%K +0.754%G +0.028% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV +3.77%E +0.629%K +0.754%G +0.028% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV +3.77%E +0.629%K +0.754%G +0.028% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.65%EV +0.313%E +0.054%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -4.82%E -3.19%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 4.98I 20.08%NM 19.39%EV -2.04%E -0.410%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV +0.313%E +0.054%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.48%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV +0.313%E +0.054%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -10.49%E -7.39%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -0.552%E -0.096%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-25 15:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -0.552%E -0.096%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-25 15:38 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -0.552%E -0.096%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.28%EV -10.49%E -7.39%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV -3.15%E -0.562%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.59%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-25 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -3.15%E -0.562%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -11.12%E -7.89%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -3.15%E -0.562%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -11.12%E -7.89%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -3.15%E -0.562%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.17%EV -11.12%E -7.89%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -3.15%E -0.562%K -0.684%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.06%EV -11.75%E -8.39%K -29.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -11.49%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-25 15:23 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-25 14:53 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-25 14:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-25 14:53 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-25 14:53 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-25 15:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-25 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.65%E -0.330%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-25 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.65%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -3.62%E -0.738%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-25 15:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.39%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.39%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -6.57%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-25 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -6.57%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -7.34%E -4.99%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-25 14:53 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.34%E -4.99%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.57%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-25 15:23 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-25 15:23 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.11%EV -4.88%E -0.886%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.20%EV -13.01%E -9.43%K -34.24%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.69%EV -11.49%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.54%EV -6.60%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.73%EV -4.82%E -3.19%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.58%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.71%EV -7.47%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.34%EV -4.19%E -2.75%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -6.57%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-25 15:26 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.29I 18.90%NM 17.70%EV -8.51%E -1.61%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.42%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.88%EV -7.35%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-25 15:26 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -9.20%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.98%EV -3.56%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -6.57%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -9.20%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -3.56%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -9.20%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -3.56%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -9.20%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-25 15:26 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -9.20%E -1.75%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.68%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-25 15:23 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -11.79%E -2.31%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.99%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-25 14:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.31%EV -11.79%E -2.31%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.62%EV -11.12%E -7.89%K -27.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.07%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.49%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-25 14:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.49%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-25 15:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 62.65%EV -10.49%E -7.39%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.55%EV -10.50%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-25 15:38 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -13.52%E -2.70%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.98%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.83%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -15.25%E -3.11%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -7.34%E -4.99%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -7.55%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.73%EV -15.25%E -3.11%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.52%EV -12.38%E -8.91%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.75%EV -13.45%E -3.06%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-25 15:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -18.71%E -3.98%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.59%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -9.52%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.01% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 0.8% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.01% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 0.8% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.01% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 0.8% | 2026-10-25 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-25 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.16% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37% | 1.2% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.70% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62% | 1.9% | 2026-10-25 15:41 |