The School of Odds
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PSV Eindhoven v Willem II

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 17:45 UTC

Final: PSV Eindhoven 7–0 Willem II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Prediction 89.00%1.12fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -33.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.16%89.07%89.02%91.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.061.0999.01%94.66%94.34%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Willem II (Visit)

Prediction 3.99%25.07fair odd
EV +43.57%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.542%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.67%3.93%4.07%5.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.5023.6923.0036.006.90%4.22%4.35%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.02%14.25fair odd
EV +27.33%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.435%

assuming max odds 18.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.31%7.01%6.91%11.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7013.1913.0018.1512.99%7.58%7.69%5.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 89.00%; Willem II (Visit): 3.99%; Draw: 7.02%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.07. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.66%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.67%EV +43.57%E +1.21%K +1.24%G +0.542%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +19.26%E +1.13%K +1.20%G +0.232%3.9%2026-10-31 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.66%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.67%EV +43.57%E +1.21%K +1.24%G +0.542%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +19.26%E +1.13%K +1.20%G +0.232%3.9%2026-10-31 17:15
Coolbet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 90.67%EV -3.88%E -3.60%K -48.55%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.80%EV +39.59%E +1.13%K +1.16%G +0.461%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.53%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%2.1%2026-10-31 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.84%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.81%EV +35.60%E +1.05%K +1.08%G +0.384%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%4.8%2026-10-31 17:40
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.32%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.30%EV +15.66%E +0.540%K +0.559%G +0.088%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%4.5%2026-10-31 17:13
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.32%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.30%EV +15.66%E +0.540%K +0.559%G +0.088%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%4.5%2026-10-31 17:14
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.92%EV -3.88%E -3.60%K -48.55%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.69%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 17:34
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.92%EV -3.88%E -3.60%K -48.55%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.69%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.01%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.06%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.30%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%5.8%2026-10-31 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.84%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.62%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.53%EV -12.31%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.41%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV +3.69%E +0.142%K +0.148%G +0.005%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.02%EV -7.05%E -0.532%K -0.575%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.94%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.75I 3.88%NM 3.74%EV +2.70%E +0.105%K +0.109%G +0.003%18.15I 5.51%NM 5.31%EV +27.33%E +1.51%K +1.59%G +0.435%3.7%2026-10-31 17:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.94%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.75I 3.88%NM 3.74%EV +2.70%E +0.105%K +0.109%G +0.003%18.15I 5.51%NM 5.31%EV +27.33%E +1.51%K +1.59%G +0.435%3.7%2026-10-31 17:30
BetUS🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.94%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.75I 3.88%NM 3.74%EV +2.70%E +0.105%K +0.109%G +0.003%18.15I 5.51%NM 5.31%EV +27.33%E +1.51%K +1.59%G +0.435%3.7%2026-10-31 17:30
BetAnything🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.94%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.75I 3.88%NM 3.74%EV +2.70%E +0.105%K +0.109%G +0.003%18.15I 5.51%NM 5.31%EV +27.33%E +1.51%K +1.59%G +0.435%3.7%2026-10-31 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.70%EV -2.99%E -2.75%K -33.26%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.87%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.44%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.70%EV -2.99%E -2.75%K -33.26%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.87%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.44%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.80%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 17:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.34%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.78%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.76%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -12.31%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:40
Casumo🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.76%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -12.31%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:40
betPARX🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.76%EV -0.296%E -0.012%K -0.012%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -12.31%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:40
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.02%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%23.23I 4.30%NM 4.15%EV -7.35%E -0.317%K -0.331%G +0.000%16.52I 6.05%NM 5.83%EV +15.89%E +0.962%K +1.02%G +0.163%3.8%2026-10-31 17:35
1xBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.83%EV -3.88%E -3.60%K -48.55%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%13.70I 7.30%NM 7.00%EV -3.89%E -0.284%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 17:35
Betway🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.22%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.16%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.63%EV +19.26%E +1.13%K +1.20%G +0.232%4.6%2026-10-31 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.14%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.81%EV -1.79%E -0.128%K -0.137%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 17:40
William Hill🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.59%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 17:20
picklebet_au🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.05%EV -4.77%E -4.46%K -68.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.10%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 17:35
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.68%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.68%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.68%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 17:20
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.23%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.79%E -0.128%K -0.137%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 17:39
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 17:40
Neds🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.72%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +5.23%E +0.349%K +0.373%G +0.020%7.2%2026-10-31 17:30
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.25%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 17:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.25%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -8.27%E -0.360%K -0.376%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 17:20
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.79%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.48%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%EV -1.79%E -0.128%K -0.137%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 13:28
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 17:40
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.53%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 17:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.53%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -8.80%E -0.677%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 17:30
TABtouch🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.62%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -19.33%E -1.68%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.62%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -19.33%E -1.68%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.62%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -19.33%E -1.68%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 17:40
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.30%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.41%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -16.25%E -0.774%K -0.812%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 17:40
BetRivers🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.00%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -20.24%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 87.43%EV -9.22%E -9.04%K -461.17%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.46%EV -20.24%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.11%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 17:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 87.85%EV -10.11%E -10.01%K -1011.34%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.44%EV -20.24%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.72%EV -19.33%E -1.68%K -1.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.95%EV -7.44%E -7.16%K -186.09%G +0.000%19.25I 5.19%NM 4.64%EV -23.23%E -1.21%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.41%EV -33.36%E -3.51%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-31 17:39
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.38%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.39%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -24.22%E -1.27%K -1.35%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.79%E -0.128%K -0.137%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 17:29
betfred_uk🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.90%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -24.22%E -1.27%K -1.35%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.01%EV -6.55%E -6.24%K -131.07%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -32.20%E -1.89%K -2.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -15.82%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 17:35
Sky Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 86.64%EV -8.33%E -8.09%K -277.78%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -32.20%E -1.89%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.11%EV -22.83%E -2.08%K -2.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 17:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 83.16%EV -8.33%E -8.09%K -277.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.71%EV -40.18%E -2.68%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.12%EV -45.98%E -5.97%K -6.86%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-31 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 84.35%EV -8.33%E -8.09%K -277.78%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 5.99%EV -42.17%E -2.91%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.65%EV -36.86%E -4.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-31 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 91.86%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.92%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%0.8%2026-10-31 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 91.86%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.92%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%0.8%2026-10-31 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 91.86%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.92%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%0.8%2026-10-31 17:40
Matchbook◎1.08I 92.59%NM 91.86%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.92%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%0.8%2026-10-31 17:35
Kalshi◎1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14%33.33I 3.00%NM 2.95%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.90%1.6%2026-10-31 17:35
Smarkets◎1.07I 93.46%NM 91.64%32.05I 3.12%NM 3.06%18.48I 5.41%NM 5.31%2.0%2026-10-31 17:35

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