La escuela de los momios

PSV Eindhoven v AZ Alkmaar

Inicio: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Predicción 67.02%1.49momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -1.47%
Kelly -4.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.01%67.06%66.96%69.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.221.381.401.4681.97%72.45%71.43%68.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

AZ Alkmaar (Visitante)

Predicción 14.82%6.75momio equitativo
EV +3.74%
Ventaja +0.534%
Kelly +0.623%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.14%14.79%14.89%16.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.306.436.407.0018.87%15.56%15.63%14.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.16%5.51momio equitativo
EV -0.141%
Ventaja -0.026%
Kelly -0.031%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.96%18.16%18.14%20.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.205.095.105.5023.81%19.65%19.61%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -4.83%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Svenska Spel1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -4.83%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 18:54
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 18:35
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 18:33
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 18:09
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.86%EV -3.77%E -0.712%K -0.877%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 18:40
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.86%EV -3.77%E -0.712%K -0.877%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 18:55
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 18:54
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 18:40
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 18:54
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 18:54
TABtouch1.35I 74.07%NM 68.85%EV -9.52%E -7.05%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 18:54
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 68.85%EV -9.52%E -7.05%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 18:54
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 18:34
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV +3.74%E +0.534%K +0.623%G +0.023%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:34
Pinnacle1.42I 70.42%NM 67.75%EV -4.83%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.81I 14.68%NM 14.13%EV +0.924%E +0.136%K +0.159%G +0.001%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.12%EV -3.59%E -0.676%K -0.833%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 18:45
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.53%EV -2.15%E -1.47%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.35%EV +0.331%E +0.049%K +0.057%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 19.12%EV -7.77%E -1.53%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-07 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.67%EV -10.19%E -7.60%K -29.96%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.63%EV +0.035%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:55
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.76%EV -11.53%E -8.73%K -36.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV +0.035%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -7.40%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 18:39
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.76%EV -11.53%E -8.73%K -36.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV +0.035%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -7.40%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 18:40
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.11%EV -9.52%E -7.05%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -0.706%E -0.105%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -0.141%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 18:04
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 67.32%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.67%E -0.565%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 18:04
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.67%E -0.565%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 18:04
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -3.67%E -0.565%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 18:19
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -3.67%E -0.565%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-07 18:34
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.08%EV -6.84%E -4.92%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.46%EV -4.41%E -0.684%K -0.809%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.46%EV -8.31%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 18:55
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 65.97%EV -3.49%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.84%EV -5.15%E -0.805%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.19%EV -10.13%E -2.05%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 18:53
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.97%EV -3.49%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.84%EV -5.15%E -0.805%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.19%EV -10.13%E -2.05%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 18:54
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 66.57%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -7.40%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 18:54
BetAnything1.41I 70.92%NM 66.57%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -7.40%E -1.45%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 18:54
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 18:19
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 65.84%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -13.76%E -2.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Fliff1.36I 73.53%NM 67.13%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.61%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 18:40
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.99%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -7.38%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -13.76%E -2.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:34
Codere (IT)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.73%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -8.12%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 18:39
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.49%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 18:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.49%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 18:15
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.16%E -2.91%K -9.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 18:14
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.83%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -4.68%E -0.891%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 18:39
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 16:34
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.22%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 18:44
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 18:14
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 18:14
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 18:14
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.01%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.41%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.59%EV -23.74%E -5.65%K -7.42%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-07 18:44
PMU (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 68.09%EV -18.23%E -14.94%K -82.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 13.85%EV -11.08%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.06%EV -16.48%E -3.58%K -4.58%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-07 18:34
NetBet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 66.80%EV -12.87%E -9.90%K -42.90%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.72%EV -12.56%E -2.13%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.48%EV -14.67%E -3.12%K -3.96%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-07 18:40
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.50%EV -10.19%E -7.60%K -29.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.50%EV -14.79%E -2.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.00%EV -10.13%E -2.05%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:53
Winamax (DE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.15%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.76%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -17.01%E -3.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.55%EV -5.59%E -1.07%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.02%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.68%EV -17.01%E -3.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -12.85%E -2.68%K -3.38%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-07 18:40
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -8.85%E -6.51%K -24.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -18.49%E -3.36%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -13.76%E -2.90%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 18:09
Winamax (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 65.35%EV -9.52%E -7.05%K -27.19%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.65%EV -21.45%E -4.05%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.00%EV -11.03%E -2.25%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-07 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.36%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.80%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.84%0.1%2026-03-07 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.13%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%0.5%2026-03-07 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.13%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%0.5%2026-03-07 18:54
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 69.13%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.10%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%0.5%2026-03-07 18:54
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85%0.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.81%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.30%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89%1.6%2026-03-07 18:55