Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 13:30 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Groningen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 48.16%2.08fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.90%48.12%48.19%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.932.0256.18%51.73%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV +0.715%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.279%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.70%28.35%28.28%31.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.293.303.5635.71%30.43%30.30%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.11%23.53%23.52%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.954.2027.78%25.63%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 48.16%; Groningen (Visit): 28.29%; Draw: 23.55%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.715%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.47%EV -6.58%E -3.39%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.96%EV +0.715%E +0.201%K +0.279%G +0.002%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.58%EV -4.13%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.31%EV -2.73%E -1.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.88%EV -0.983%E -0.281%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.80%EV -3.43%E -0.836%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-25 13:25
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.983%E -0.281%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.07%E -0.255%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 13:25
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.983%E -0.281%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.07%E -0.255%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -10.91%E -5.90%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -0.983%E -0.281%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.43%E -0.836%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.86%EV -4.65%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.88%EV -1.83%E -0.528%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.26%EV -2.01%E -0.484%K -0.637%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 13:21
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%EV -2.73%E -1.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -2.40%E -0.695%K -0.979%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.84%EV -2.73%E -1.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -2.40%E -0.695%K -0.979%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 13:25
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -2.40%E -0.695%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -8.14%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 13:25
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 13:25
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 13:21
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.05%EV -7.54%E -3.93%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.25%EV -4.60%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.14%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 13:25
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -3.81%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.14%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 13:24
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.46%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.33%EV -4.60%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.40%EV -3.21%E -1.60%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -6.36%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.40%EV -3.21%E -1.60%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -6.36%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 13:05
BetUS🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.40%EV -3.21%E -1.60%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -6.36%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 13:05
BetAnything🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.40%EV -3.21%E -1.60%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.78%EV -6.36%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 13:05
Betsson🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.26%EV -6.58%E -3.39%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.28%EV -6.36%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.46%EV -6.02%E -1.51%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 13:15
picklebet_au🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.34%EV -3.69%E -1.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.96%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 13:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -4.65%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 13:21
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.59%EV -4.65%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.96%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 13:20
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 13:00
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 13:21
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 13:25
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -7.06%E -3.66%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.32%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 13:25
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-25 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -3.43%E -0.836%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 13:25
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.67%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.43%EV -7.06%E -3.66%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.16%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -11.67%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.96%EV -4.65%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.70%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.34%EV -10.02%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 13:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -7.54%E -3.93%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.85%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -7.54%E -3.93%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.85%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -7.54%E -3.93%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.85%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.48%EV -11.39%E -6.19%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.05%EV -10.04%E -3.16%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.49%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 13:19
Bet Right🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.59%EV -7.06%E -3.66%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.88%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -6.96%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.98%EV -8.51%E -4.48%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -10.88%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -6.96%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.22%EV -8.99%E -4.76%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -10.88%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -14.03%E -3.84%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.19%EV -9.47%E -5.04%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -10.88%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 13:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.91%EV -10.91%E -5.90%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -10.88%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -12.85%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 13:24
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.69%E -1.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.67%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 13:10
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 13:25
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.97%EV -5.13%E -2.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -14.03%E -3.84%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.74%EV -9.47%E -5.04%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -9.32%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 13:20
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -10.91%E -5.90%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-25 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.66%EV -14.28%E -8.02%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.94%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -12.85%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-25 13:20
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -8.02%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -20.79%E -7.42%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -5.78%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.73%0.3%2026-10-25 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-25 13:25
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%1.0%2026-10-25 13:25
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-10-25 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-10-25 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-25 13:25