The School of Odds
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NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 18:00 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 54.96%1.82fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.41%54.96%54.83%57.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.701.7863.69%58.93%58.82%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visit)

Prediction 21.75%4.60fair odd
EV +0.054%
Edge +0.012%
Kelly +0.015%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.76%21.80%21.87%23.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.254.254.6026.32%23.51%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.29%4.29fair odd
EV +0.825%
Edge +0.190%
Kelly +0.248%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.06%23.24%23.30%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.984.004.3326.67%25.09%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 54.96%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 21.75%; Draw: 23.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.825%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV +0.054%E +0.012%K +0.015%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV +0.825%E +0.190%K +0.248%G +0.002%4.7%2026-10-18 17:52
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV +0.054%E +0.012%K +0.015%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV +0.825%E +0.190%K +0.248%G +0.002%4.7%2026-10-18 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.12%EV -2.16%E -1.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.80%EV -2.12%E -0.471%K -0.606%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.08%EV -1.04%E -0.244%K -0.319%G +0.000%1.9%2026-10-18 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.12%EV -2.16%E -1.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.80%EV -2.12%E -0.471%K -0.606%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.08%EV -1.04%E -0.244%K -0.319%G +0.000%1.9%2026-10-18 17:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.39%EV -3.26%E -1.85%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV -2.12%E -0.471%K -0.606%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.94%EV -1.04%E -0.244%K -0.319%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-18 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.07%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.21%EV -1.69%E -0.373%K -0.479%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.72%EV -1.74%E -0.412%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.07%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.21%EV -1.69%E -0.373%K -0.479%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.72%EV -1.74%E -0.412%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.07%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.21%EV -1.69%E -0.373%K -0.479%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.72%EV -1.74%E -0.412%K -0.539%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.58%EV -4.36%E -2.51%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.44%EV -1.90%E -0.422%K -0.542%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.97%EV -1.97%E -0.468%K -0.614%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-18 17:50
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.96%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -2.12%E -0.471%K -0.606%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -2.20%E -0.524%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 17:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.56%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.20%E -0.524%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 17:54
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -6.47%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.53%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 17:34
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.67%EV -7.11%E -4.21%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -4.30%E -0.976%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.53%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 17:54
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.95%EV -7.66%E -4.56%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -3.21%E -0.721%K -0.930%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.53%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -4.30%E -0.976%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.53%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 17:30
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.47%EV -4.91%E -2.84%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.95%EV -0.381%E -0.083%K -0.106%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.58%EV -5.23%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 17:54
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.95%EV -2.71%E -1.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%EV -7.56%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV -5.70%E -1.41%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 17:24
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.44%EV -4.36%E -2.51%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.88%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 17:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.64%EV -4.91%E -2.84%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.73%EV -5.38%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 17:44
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -4.91%E -2.84%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 17:34
picklebet_au🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.73%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 17:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -6.47%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 17:44
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -4.30%E -0.976%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -4.91%E -2.84%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 17:34
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -7.11%E -4.21%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.30%E -0.976%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 17:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -7.56%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 09:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -7.56%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 17:55
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 17:54
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -7.66%E -4.56%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -10.82%E -2.64%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -8.76%E -5.28%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 17:44
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -10.96%E -6.76%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -17.35%E -4.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -6.86%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-18 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.02%E -2.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 17:49
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.02%E -2.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 17:49
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.02%E -2.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.29%EV -3.81%E -2.18%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.35%EV -3.21%E -0.721%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.36%EV -9.19%E -2.36%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 17:44
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.89%EV -6.01%E -3.52%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -10.82%E -2.64%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -9.19%E -2.36%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -10.82%E -2.64%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -9.19%E -2.36%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.19%E -2.36%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.48%EV -9.86%E -6.01%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.08%E -3.57%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -9.19%E -2.36%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 17:44
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -7.56%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -10.35%E -2.69%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-18 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.21%EV -10.96%E -6.76%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.55%EV -9.73%E -2.35%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -10.35%E -2.69%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-18 17:45
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -5.46%E -3.18%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.30%EV -4.51%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.35%EV -10.58%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 17:34
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:44
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 17:44
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -8.65%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -6.56%E -3.86%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-18 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.70%EV -7.66%E -4.56%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.70%EV -7.66%E -4.56%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.70%EV -7.66%E -4.56%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.45%EV -10.41%E -6.39%K -16.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-18 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.38%EV -13.71%E -8.73%K -24.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.74%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -11.52%E -3.03%K -4.11%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-18 17:45
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.21%E -4.92%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -12.68%E -3.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.83%EV -8.76%E -5.28%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.68%E -3.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.83%EV -8.76%E -5.28%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -13.00%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.68%E -3.38%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-10-18 17:55
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-10-18 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.48%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-10-18 17:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.48%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-10-18 17:50
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.76%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%1.9%2026-10-18 17:55
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-18 17:50