Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 46.08%2.17fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%46.09%46.06%47.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.052.1254.05%49.44%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 28.85%3.47fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.794%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.81%28.90%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.223.4033.33%31.06%31.06%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -0.993%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.337%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%25.10%25.04%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.693.723.9532.26%27.08%26.88%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 46.08%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 28.85%; Draw: 25.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.95, with an expected value of -0.993%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.63%EV -2.30%E -1.09%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.05%EV -3.93%E -1.18%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.32%EV -4.25%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.33%EV -3.22%E -1.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.04%EV -3.35%E -1.000%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.993%E -0.251%K -0.337%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.18%EV -3.22%E -1.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -3.35%E -1.000%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -2.25%E -0.576%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.18%EV -3.22%E -1.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -3.35%E -1.000%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -2.25%E -0.576%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 13:45
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.93%EV -3.68%E -1.76%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.00%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.06%EV -4.00%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 13:45
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.92%EV -4.15%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 10:50
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.92%EV -4.15%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 10:50
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.77%EV -4.15%E -1.99%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 00:04
Bovada🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -4.61%E -2.23%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 13:44
BetUS🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -4.61%E -2.23%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 13:45
BetAnything🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -4.61%E -2.23%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16%EV -5.07%E -2.46%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 13:45
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.58%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -2.25%E -0.576%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 13:43
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-25 20:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-25 23:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 05:29
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 05:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 03:34
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.08%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.79%E -1.45%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 05:29
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 13:44
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 00:04
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 08:19
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 13:45
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -5.53%E -2.70%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 13:45
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.20%EV -5.99%E -2.94%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 13:45
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.20%EV -5.99%E -2.94%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 13:45
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.20%EV -5.99%E -2.94%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.92%EV -6.45%E -3.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -1.91%E -0.561%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.92%EV -6.45%E -3.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -1.91%E -0.561%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.95%EV -6.45%E -3.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -7.10%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.76%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.08%EV -6.91%E -3.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.08%EV -6.91%E -3.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.08%EV -6.91%E -3.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 13:45
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -6.91%E -3.42%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -9.12%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-25 16:24
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -7.83%E -3.92%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.23%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 13:45
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -7.83%E -3.92%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.01%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -8.75%E -4.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 07:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -9.21%E -4.68%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.91%E -0.561%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.34%EV -9.21%E -4.68%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.98%EV -9.12%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -7.26%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -9.21%E -4.68%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.12%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -9.21%E -4.68%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -9.12%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 13:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.65%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 05:04
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 13:44
Fliff🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -9.12%E -2.89%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.56%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 08:20
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -10.14%E -5.20%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -13.45%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -9.77%E -2.71%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 13:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.04%EV -11.52%E -6.00%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -7.68%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -8.51%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 07:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.85%EV -11.52%E -6.00%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.35%EV -13.45%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -11.02%E -3.10%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-28 06:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -11.98%E -6.27%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -13.45%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -22.30%E -7.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%17.9%2026-02-28 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.57%EV -13.82%E -7.39%K -15.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.55%EV -12.00%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -12.27%E -3.51%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.8%2026-02-28 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.28%EV -14.74%E -7.97%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -13.45%E -4.48%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.18%EV -14.78%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-02-28 14:05
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-02-28 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-02-28 11:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-02-28 11:35
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 46.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.1%2026-02-28 14:06