The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Heerenveen v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 51.75%1.93fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.92%51.69%51.75%52.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.801.801.8557.80%55.56%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 24.61%4.06fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.707%
Kelly -0.946%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%24.59%24.61%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.753.753.9529.41%26.68%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.64%4.23fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.635%
Kelly -0.838%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.29%23.72%23.64%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.894.1228.57%25.75%25.71%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 51.75%; SC Telstar (Visit): 24.61%; Draw: 23.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.12, with an expected value of -2.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -4.26%E -2.30%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.26%E -2.30%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 18:50
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.43%EV -5.29%E -2.89%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.29%EV -2.79%E -0.707%K -0.946%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.29%EV -2.62%E -0.635%K -0.838%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 15:55
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 12:45
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.48%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 12:50
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 07:49
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 07:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 07:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.36%E -4.11%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -5.99%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.44%EV -5.93%E -1.49%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.43%E -5.39%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.40%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 12:50
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -10.47%E -6.05%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -16.33%E -4.80%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -17.27%E -4.93%K -6.91%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-01 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%174.4%2026-08-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%174.4%2026-08-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.92%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.54%181.3%2026-08-31 14:40