The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 17:45 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.937%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.30%43.54%43.48%44.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.132.152.2552.08%46.87%46.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 32.05%3.12fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.602%
Kelly +0.878%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%31.97%32.02%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.582.932.903.1838.76%34.19%34.48%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.44%4.09fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.556%
Kelly -0.741%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%24.49%24.50%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.433.753.774.0029.15%26.64%26.49%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 43.51%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 32.05%; Draw: 24.44%. For NEC Nijmegen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.81%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.15%EV +1.91%E +0.602%K +0.878%G +0.017%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.04%EV -6.38%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.86%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05%EV +0.953%E +0.302%K +0.443%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-31 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.86%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05%EV +0.953%E +0.302%K +0.443%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-31 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.86%EV -2.98%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05%EV +0.953%E +0.302%K +0.443%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-31 17:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -0.650%E -0.210%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 17:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -1.29%E -0.419%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -1.29%E -0.419%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:20
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -1.29%E -0.419%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:20
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -1.29%E -0.419%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -4.18%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 17:20
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -2.11%E -0.937%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.01%EV -2.89%E -0.955%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-31 17:35
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-31 17:39
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-31 17:39
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 17:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.64%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:30
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.64%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:30
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.64%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -3.85%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:30
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.50%EV -3.41%E -1.54%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.66%EV -4.50%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -10.78%E -2.95%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -5.46%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 17:29
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.46%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 17:40
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.26%EV -6.89%E -3.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.38%EV -5.46%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -10.78%E -2.95%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.14%EV -5.46%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 17:30
Betsson🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -3.85%E -1.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.80%EV -5.78%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.90%EV -11.76%E -3.26%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 17:30
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -5.15%E -2.36%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.10%EV -6.10%E -2.08%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:39
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.05%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 17:30
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -5.89%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 17:20
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 17:20
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:30
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -4.28%E -1.95%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 17:35
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.61%EV -3.69%E -0.936%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 17:30
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 17:35
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 17:15
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 17:15
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 17:30
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -7.06%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.70%E -2.67%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.70%E -2.67%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -9.94%E -4.80%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -7.70%E -2.67%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -7.70%E -2.67%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 17:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.46%E -3.00%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -8.66%E -3.04%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 17:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.22%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -8.66%E -3.04%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -15.67%E -4.54%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 17:30
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.26%E -3.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 17:35
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.26%E -3.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 17:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.30%EV -10.81%E -5.27%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.04%EV -11.23%E -4.05%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.66%EV -16.47%E -8.58%K -17.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.18%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.16%EV -13.22%E -3.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-31 17:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.11%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.67%EV -13.47%E -4.99%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-31 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.28%EV -12.99%E -6.49%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.67%EV -15.07%E -5.69%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.05%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-31 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 42.65%EV -13.86%E -7.00%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 32.73%EV -17.32%E -6.71%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 24.62%EV -16.16%E -4.71%K -6.65%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-31 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-10-31 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-10-31 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-10-31 17:40
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.57%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-10-31 17:30
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99%1.3%2026-10-31 17:40
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99%1.3%2026-10-31 17:40

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