The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Heerenveen v Feyenoord

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 11:15 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 5–3 Feyenoord

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 22.47%4.45fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.260%
Kelly -0.337%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%22.53%22.45%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.104.104.4027.78%24.38%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Feyenoord (Visit)

Prediction 55.74%1.79fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.27%55.70%55.80%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.671.681.7566.23%59.81%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.79%4.59fair odd
EV +0.230%
Edge +0.050%
Kelly +0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.59%21.76%21.75%22.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.234.204.6026.67%23.62%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 22.47%; Feyenoord (Visit): 55.74%; Draw: 21.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.230%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -7.89%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.19%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV +0.230%E +0.050%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 10:55
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV +0.230%E +0.050%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 22.05%EV -1.15%E -0.260%K -0.337%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.40%EV -4.12%E -2.40%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%EV -1.95%E -0.433%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 10:55
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%EV -3.39%E -0.789%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.54%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -1.95%E -0.433%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-08 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -1.95%E -0.433%K -0.557%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 10:55
Pinnacle🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%EV -4.52%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.65%EV -3.01%E -1.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.57%EV -2.17%E -0.483%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-08 10:50
BetUS🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -3.39%E -0.789%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.27%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 02:14
LowVig.ag🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 22.16%EV -3.62%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.24%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 02:15
BetOnline.ag🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 22.16%EV -3.62%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.24%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 02:15
BetAnything🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 22.16%EV -3.62%E -0.843%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.24%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 02:15
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.83%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 10:54
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.98%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -4.13%E -0.938%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-07 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -4.52%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82%EV -5.22%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 10:30
1xBet🎯4.38I 22.83%NM 21.87%EV -1.59%E -0.364%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.01%EV -4.68%E -2.74%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.12%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 21:10
picklebet_au🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.64%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 10:30
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.31%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -3.39%E -0.789%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -6.31%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 10:04
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -12.38%E -3.17%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -8.58%E -5.23%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -6.31%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-08 10:29
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -7.89%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -7.40%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-08 10:59
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.70%EV -6.35%E -3.78%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.40%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.70%EV -6.35%E -3.78%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.40%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 10:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -4.52%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -7.40%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 10:55
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -3.39%E -0.789%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 11:00
SportsBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.68%E -2.74%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 11:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.68%E -2.74%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 10:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 11:00
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -5.64%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-08 11:00
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -14.63%E -3.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -2.45%E -1.40%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -4.52%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -7.47%E -4.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 21:00
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -7.89%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.40%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 10:55
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.89%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.55%EV -7.47%E -4.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-08 10:55
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 10:29
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-08 10:30
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.24%EV -7.47%E -4.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 10:55
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -15.75%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.32%EV -10.81%E -6.76%K -18.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.07%EV -8.49%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-08 10:45
Betsson🎯4.23I 23.64%NM 22.10%EV -4.96%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.32%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.58%EV -9.79%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 11:00
PlayUp🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.89%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.35%E -3.78%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 11:00
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 10:55
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -10.66%E -2.60%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-08 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.49%EV -12.38%E -3.17%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.86%EV -12.48%E -7.95%K -21.90%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.65%EV -11.75%E -2.90%K -3.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-08 10:49
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-08 11:00
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -10.13%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-08 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.67%EV -11.26%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.94%EV -9.14%E -5.61%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-08 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -12.38%E -3.17%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.09%EV -10.25%E -6.37%K -16.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-08 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.60%EV -16.87%E -4.56%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.57%EV -10.81%E -6.76%K -18.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -12.84%E -3.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-08 10:30
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.38%E -3.17%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.62%EV -9.69%E -5.98%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -15.02%E -3.85%K -5.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-08 10:26
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.02%EV -19.12%E -5.31%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 54.88%EV -15.83%E -10.48%K -31.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.10%EV -18.29%E -4.88%K -6.65%G +0.000%20.7%2026-11-08 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-11-08 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-11-08 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-11-08 11:00
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.11%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95%1.3%2026-11-08 11:00
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-11-08 10:50

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