The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 15:45 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen (Local)

Prediction 54.73%1.83fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.24%54.74%54.73%56.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.691.701.7764.52%59.00%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 22.75%4.40fair odd
EV +4.65%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.15%22.72%22.77%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.144.154.6027.78%24.15%24.10%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.541%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%22.54%22.49%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.074.004.3626.67%24.58%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 54.73%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 22.75%; Draw: 22.52%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.09%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.22%EV +4.65%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.70%EV -3.17%E -0.737%K -0.960%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-01 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.09%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.22%EV +4.65%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.70%EV -3.17%E -0.737%K -0.960%G +0.000%2.5%2026-11-01 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.23%EV -5.31%E -3.07%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.15%EV +4.65%E +1.01%K +1.29%G +0.060%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%EV -3.17%E -0.737%K -0.960%G +0.000%2.8%2026-11-01 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +0.096%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.24%EV -1.82%E -0.417%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 15:25
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV +0.096%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 15:25
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -7.50%E -4.44%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV +0.096%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 15:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -8.60%E -5.15%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV +0.096%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 15:15
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -1.04%E -0.240%K -0.311%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -1.04%E -0.240%K -0.311%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 15:30
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -1.04%E -0.240%K -0.311%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 15:30
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.02%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -1.50%E -0.346%K -0.450%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -2.49%E -0.576%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 15:33
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.02%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -1.50%E -0.346%K -0.450%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -2.49%E -0.576%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -2.18%E -0.507%K -0.660%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 15:30
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.21%EV -4.77%E -2.74%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.39%EV -2.41%E -0.561%K -0.732%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.39%EV -3.39%E -0.791%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 15:30
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -3.32%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.64%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 15:33
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.09%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -3.32%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.07%EV -8.60%E -5.15%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -11.05%E -2.80%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 15:30
Betsson🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.32%EV -7.50%E -4.44%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.10%EV -3.77%E -0.892%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.58%EV -6.77%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 15:30
picklebet_au🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.31%E -3.07%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.31%E -3.07%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 13:05
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.41%E -3.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-01 15:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -8.60%E -5.15%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 15:30
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -9.15%E -5.51%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.60%E -5.15%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 15:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -9.69%E -5.87%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -9.69%E -5.87%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -9.69%E -5.87%K -14.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-01 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.40%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -5.59%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.40%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -5.59%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 14:40
BetUS🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.40%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -5.59%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 14:35
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.40%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -5.59%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.96%EV -5.86%E -3.41%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -3.17%E -0.737%K -0.960%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 13:10
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -3.12%E -1.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 07:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%EV -5.31%E -3.07%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-01 13:05
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.41%E -3.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 11:20
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.77%EV -10.24%E -6.24%K -16.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -13.30%E -3.45%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-01 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.90%EV -11.33%E -7.00%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -6.73%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-01 15:30
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -5.86%E -3.41%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -3.17%E -0.737%K -0.960%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 13:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 06:59
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.22%E -2.41%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 07:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -4.29%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-01 13:10
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 15:20
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 15:20
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.06%EV -5.86%E -3.41%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.14%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -6.55%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 21:00
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -10.14%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.03%EV -11.33%E -7.00%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%EV -10.14%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.40%EV -10.37%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-01 15:17
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.33%EV -8.05%E -4.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -11.28%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 13:05
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.37%EV -8.60%E -5.15%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -11.28%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -15.55%E -4.15%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-01 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.31%EV -10.79%E -6.62%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -11.28%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.99%EV -13.30%E -3.45%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-01 15:36
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.23%EV -15.17%E -9.78%K -27.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -13.55%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.24%EV -13.30%E -3.45%K -4.67%G +0.000%16.8%2026-11-01 15:19
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -6.96%E -4.09%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -14.69%E -3.92%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-01 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.79%EV -11.33%E -7.00%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%EV -16.97%E -4.65%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -12.18%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 13:05
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -11.33%E -7.00%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -18.10%E -5.03%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.9%2026-11-01 15:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.9%2026-11-01 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.9%2026-11-01 15:30
Matchbook◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%1.5%2026-11-01 15:36
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.85%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.57%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.57%1.8%2026-11-01 15:10
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.50%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%2.4%2026-11-01 15:36

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.