Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 14:45 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–5 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen (Local)

Prediction 27.86%3.59fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.432%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%27.89%27.75%29.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.303.5533.33%29.90%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 48.56%2.06fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.80%48.55%48.66%49.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.911.912.0157.14%52.34%52.36%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV -0.978%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.306%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%23.56%23.59%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.924.2027.78%25.61%25.51%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 27.86%; Ajax (Visit): 48.56%; Draw: 23.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -0.978%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -1.10%E -0.310%K -0.432%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.13%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -1.10%E -0.310%K -0.432%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.13%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.20%EV -1.10%E -0.310%K -0.432%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.26%EV -4.81%E -2.46%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.55%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-18 14:04
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.14%EV -1.38%E -0.390%K -0.543%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.53%EV -3.84%E -1.94%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.49%E -0.713%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.49%E -0.713%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:40
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.49%E -0.713%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:39
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.49%E -0.713%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.04%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 14:40
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.72%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 14:25
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 14:39
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 14:04
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 14:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.04%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.22%EV -8.21%E -4.35%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.73%EV -7.58%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 14:00
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 28.18%EV -4.44%E -1.30%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.08%EV -2.39%E -1.19%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -4.04%E -0.993%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-18 14:35
Betsson🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.34%EV -4.72%E -1.38%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.19%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.47%EV -9.94%E -2.60%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -6.27%E -3.25%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 14:04
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -6.27%E -3.25%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 14:04
picklebet_au🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -6.27%E -3.25%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 14:05
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 14:29
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 14:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 14:19
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -5.78%E -2.98%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 14:39
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 14:04
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.28%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -8.70%E -4.63%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 14:05
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.67%E -1.99%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 14:15
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.67%E -1.99%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.48%EV -8.70%E -4.63%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -11.59%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -0.978%E -0.233%K -0.306%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:15
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -0.978%E -0.233%K -0.306%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:09
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -0.978%E -0.233%K -0.306%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 14:13
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 14:24
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 14:19
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 14:24
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -4.81%E -2.46%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 14:35
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -6.27%E -3.25%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:39
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -9.18%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -9.18%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 14:04
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -9.18%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 14:04
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -9.18%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -9.18%E -4.91%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 14:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -8.07%E -2.44%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.68%EV -12.58%E -6.99%K -15.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-18 14:18
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-18 14:15
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 14:14
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 14:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.46%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.08%EV -9.67%E -5.20%K -11.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-18 14:04
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -11.13%E -6.08%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -11.59%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-18 14:34
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -15.12%E -4.20%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 14:39
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.08%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.51%EV -15.01%E -8.58%K -20.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.42%EV -12.77%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-18 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -12.24%E -3.89%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -10.64%E -5.78%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 14:04
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -13.64%E -4.40%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.89%EV -7.73%E -4.07%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 14:14
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -16.42%E -5.47%K -8.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.81%EV -11.13%E -6.08%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.02%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-18 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-18 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-18 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-18 14:35
Matchbook◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-10-18 14:35
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%1.7%2026-10-18 14:35
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-10-18 14:29