Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:30 UTC

Final: Go Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Prediction 58.58%1.71fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.29%58.49%58.48%59.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.601.601.6767.11%62.57%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 19.42%5.15fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +0.691%
Kelly +0.850%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.93%19.49%19.47%21.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.814.805.3423.81%20.80%20.83%18.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.00%4.54fair odd
EV -0.988%
Edge -0.220%
Kelly -0.282%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.77%22.02%22.05%23.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.154.204.5026.32%24.09%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Go Ahead Eagles (Local): 58.58%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 19.42%; Draw: 22.00%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.11%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.93%EV +3.69%E +0.691%K +0.850%G +0.031%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.96%EV -8.25%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 14:25
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.79%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.13%EV +3.11%E +0.585%K +0.721%G +0.022%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.08%EV -4.07%E -0.933%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.52%EV -7.44%E -4.71%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV +0.970%E +0.187%K +0.231%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:25
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.21%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.70%EV +0.193%E +0.037%K +0.046%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.09%EV -3.85%E -0.881%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-10 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.13%EV -2.17%E -1.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.03%EV -0.972%E -0.191%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.84%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-10 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65%EV -0.972%E -0.191%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65%EV -0.972%E -0.191%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65%EV -0.972%E -0.191%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:25
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.16%EV -6.86%E -4.31%K -11.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -0.972%E -0.191%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:24
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.90%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.66%EV -1.94%E -0.385%K -0.480%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.90%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.88%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.90%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.88%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:25
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -0.988%E -0.220%K -0.282%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:25
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.80%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:20
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.19%E -0.725%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:19
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.40%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -3.19%E -0.725%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:19
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.95%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:07
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -10.37%E -6.78%K -19.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -2.91%E -0.583%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.65%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -4.86%E -0.991%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -9.79%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -4.86%E -0.991%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -8.69%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:05
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.81%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -5.83%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:15
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.82%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.39%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.79%EV -9.57%E -2.33%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:05
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.42%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.86%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 14:25
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:25
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:25
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -4.51%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:25
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -6.80%E -1.42%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.77%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.73%EV -4.29%E -0.986%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.77%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.988%E -0.220%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -7.77%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -0.988%E -0.220%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:25
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.77%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:25
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -7.77%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -14.19%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.38%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -8.74%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -3.19%E -0.725%K -0.938%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-10 14:10
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.99%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -8.74%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -13.09%E -3.31%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 14:25
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.68%E -2.32%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -6.49%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.68%E -2.32%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -14.19%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:18
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.68%E -2.32%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -15.29%E -3.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.62%E -2.80%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.58%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -12.62%E -2.80%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.59%EV -13.09%E -3.31%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.68%EV -10.96%E -7.21%K -21.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -12.62%E -2.80%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.49%EV -8.69%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -12.62%E -2.80%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -16.39%E -4.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-10 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.41%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.62%E -2.80%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -14.19%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.23%EV -8.62%E -5.52%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -14.56%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -5.39%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.44%EV -12.72%E -8.53%K -25.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.79%EV -14.56%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.77%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-10 14:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.29%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.85%EV -15.53%E -3.57%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -16.39%E -4.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 14:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.29%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.85%EV -15.53%E -3.57%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -16.39%E -4.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 14:01
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.45%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -11.99%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%EV -9.79%E -6.36%K -18.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -18.45%E -4.39%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -7.59%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-10 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.98%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.94%0.2%2026-10-10 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.00%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-10-10 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.89%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-10-10 14:25
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.15%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.92%1.4%2026-10-10 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.70%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.91%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-10-10 14:25
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.04%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.58%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38%1.6%2026-10-10 14:25