La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Sittard v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-03-08 13:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Predicción 41.05%2.44momio equitativo
EV -2.29%
Ventaja -0.963%
Kelly -1.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.91%41.04%41.02%42.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.272.302.3850.00%44.00%43.48%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 32.93%3.04momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +0.772%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.21%32.95%32.94%33.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.812.803.1139.22%35.54%35.71%32.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.02%3.84momio equitativo
EV -2.42%
Ventaja -0.647%
Kelly -0.882%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.27%26.01%26.04%28.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.563.603.7533.33%28.06%27.78%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.83%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.21%EV +2.40%E +0.772%K +1.14%G +0.027%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.96%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 13:24
Pinnacle2.34I 42.74%NM 41.38%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.60%EV -2.21%E -0.744%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.03%EV -3.21%E -0.862%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-08 13:15
BetUS2.37I 42.19%NM 40.92%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 13:24
BetAnything2.37I 42.19%NM 40.92%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 13:25
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.92%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 13:25
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.92%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.87%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 13:25
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.56%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.96%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -2.42%E -0.647%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 12:44
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-08 12:39
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 13:14
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.63%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.42%E -0.647%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 13:24
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.63%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.42%E -0.647%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 13:25
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.63%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.58%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.79%EV -2.42%E -0.647%K -0.882%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 13:24
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.00%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 13:25
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 13:24
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 13:20
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 13:15
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 13:19
Codere (IT)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.68%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 13:24
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 13:20
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 13:19
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -3.73%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 13:14
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 12:49
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 12:44
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 12:45
Bet Right2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 13:20
Bovada2.31I 43.29%NM 40.68%EV -5.17%E -2.24%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.21%EV -6.82%E -2.41%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 13:15
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -5.99%E -2.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -7.48%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.85%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 13:24
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-08 13:24
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 13:24
Casumo2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 13:25
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 13:24
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 13:24
betPARX2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 13:24
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.40%E -2.81%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 13:25
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.40%E -2.81%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 13:25
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.33%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 13:20
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 12:59
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 13:00
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 12:59
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.91%EV -12.55%E -5.89%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -8.80%E -3.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.23%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-08 13:25
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 13:20
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 13:25
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 13:25
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-08 13:14
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -8.45%E -3.79%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 13:24
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.60%EV -8.45%E -3.79%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 13:24
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -7.63%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-08 13:19
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.73%E -5.46%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.93%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 13:09
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -11.73%E -5.46%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-08 13:14
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -13.79%E -6.57%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -12.83%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-08 13:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.36%EV -13.79%E -6.57%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.39%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.25%EV -21.94%E -7.31%K -10.97%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-08 12:58
NetBet (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 41.04%EV -12.97%E -6.12%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -12.09%E -4.53%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-08 13:23
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -11.73%E -5.46%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -14.39%E -5.54%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -11.53%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-08 13:20
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.67%EV -17.89%E -8.95%K -17.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.68%EV -16.04%E -6.29%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.64%EV -15.43%E -4.75%K -6.86%G +0.000%20.0%2026-03-08 13:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.86%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.90%0.3%2026-03-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-03-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.11%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-03-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%0.7%2026-03-08 13:25
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.99%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55%1.7%2026-03-08 13:25
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 41.19%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.35%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-03-08 13:25