The School of Odds
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Fortuna Sittard v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC

Final: Fortuna Sittard 2–2 SC Telstar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Prediction 46.03%2.17fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.37%46.10%45.95%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.022.022.1055.56%49.61%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 27.29%3.66fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.625%
Kelly +0.852%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.91%27.34%27.34%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.7533.33%29.36%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV +0.037%
Edge +0.010%
Kelly +0.013%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.57%26.71%27.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.503.7532.26%28.98%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Sittard (Local): 46.03%; SC Telstar (Visit): 27.29%; Draw: 26.68%. For SC Telstar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.72%EV -4.25%E -2.05%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.91%EV +2.34%E +0.625%K +0.852%G +0.020%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.37%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-11-07 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.72%EV -4.25%E -2.05%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.91%EV +2.34%E +0.625%K +0.852%G +0.020%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.37%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-11-07 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.72%EV -4.25%E -2.05%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.91%EV +2.34%E +0.625%K +0.852%G +0.020%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.37%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.9%2026-11-07 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -9.32%E -4.73%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.75%E -0.486%K -0.673%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 15:05
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -7.02%E -3.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.11%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 15:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.02%E -3.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.11%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -10.63%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 15:10
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.02%E -3.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.11%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -10.63%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 15:10
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -7.02%E -3.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.11%E -0.877%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -10.63%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-07 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.18%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.40%EV -3.39%E -0.957%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.42%EV -2.10%E -0.571%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-07 15:10
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.21%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.06%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -2.90%E -0.796%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 15:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -2.90%E -0.796%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 15:15
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.45%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -2.90%E -0.796%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-07 15:14
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.35%EV -7.02%E -3.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.60%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.06%EV -7.70%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 15:10
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.13%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -1.30%E -0.351%K -0.480%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-07 15:01
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 15:09
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 14:40
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 14:38
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 14:40
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 15:10
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.84%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -5.84%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.79%EV -6.56%E -3.23%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.18%EV -6.66%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.02%EV -8.23%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 15:10
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 15:15
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 15:05
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 15:15
picklebet_au🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 15:15
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 10:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 05:25
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -9.32%E -4.73%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-07 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -9.32%E -4.73%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-07 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -9.32%E -4.73%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-07 15:10
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -9.78%E -4.99%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -13.30%E -4.09%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-07 15:10
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-07 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.76%EV -10.70%E -5.51%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.74%EV -14.64%E -4.57%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-07 15:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.69%EV -11.16%E -5.78%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -15.97%E -5.07%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.4%2026-11-07 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -1.30%E -0.351%K -0.480%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 10:35
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.37%EV -6.56%E -3.23%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV +0.037%E +0.010%K +0.013%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-07 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -1.30%E -0.351%K -0.480%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-07 10:50
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-07 05:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.60%EV -9.78%E -4.99%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.73%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-07 14:40
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 14:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 14:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.30%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 14:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 15:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.83%EV -11.62%E -6.05%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.50%EV -14.64%E -4.57%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-07 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.27%EV -14.38%E -7.73%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.09%EV -10.10%E -3.00%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-07 15:04
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -5.30%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 10:35
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.24%E -5.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-07 15:00
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -10.24%E -5.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -12.67%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-07 10:49
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -15.40%E -4.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-07 15:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.22%EV -11.62%E -6.05%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.47%EV -16.76%E -5.50%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.20%G +0.000%15.2%2026-11-07 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 45.86%EV -17.14%E -9.52%K -21.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.51%EV -18.12%E -6.04%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.63%EV -17.30%E -5.58%K -8.24%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-07 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.74%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-11-07 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-11-07 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-11-07 15:10
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.79%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-11-07 15:15
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.85%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-11-07 15:15
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.62%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.16%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.1%2026-11-07 14:40

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