Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 11:15 UTC

Final: Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Prediction 35.07%2.85fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.39%35.15%35.04%37.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.652.8041.67%38.10%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Excelsior (Visit)

Prediction 37.53%2.66fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.631%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.41%37.50%37.50%38.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.7144.44%40.01%40.00%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.521%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.36%27.45%29.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.57%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Sittard (Local): 35.07%; Excelsior (Visit): 37.53%; Draw: 27.40%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.77%EV -8.48%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.41%EV +1.71%E +0.631%K +1.00%G +0.017%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.80%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.12%EV +1.34%E +0.495%K +0.786%G +0.010%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.09%EV -1.35%E -0.376%K -0.521%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-25 10:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.66%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.98%EV +1.34%E +0.495%K +0.786%G +0.010%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -2.72%E -0.767%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-25 11:11
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.66%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.98%EV +1.34%E +0.495%K +0.786%G +0.010%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -2.72%E -0.767%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-25 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -10.58%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.42%E -0.930%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 10:30
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -10.58%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.42%E -0.930%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 10:30
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -10.58%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.42%E -0.930%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 10:30
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.15%EV -3.57%E -1.30%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.32%EV -2.79%E -1.08%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.54%EV -3.82%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 11:05
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-25 11:04
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-25 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 10:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 10:50
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -10.58%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -8.20%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 11:11
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -12.33%E -4.93%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -8.20%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 10:30
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.71%EV -13.04%E -5.26%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.70%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 10:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -4.27%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.59%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 11:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -4.27%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.59%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 11:00
BetUS🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -4.27%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.59%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 11:00
BetAnything🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -4.27%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.59%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 11:00
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.48%EV -5.80%E -2.31%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 11:11
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.35%E -0.376%K -0.521%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-25 11:10
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 10:45
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.57%E -1.30%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 11:11
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.57%E -1.30%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 11:05
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.57%E -1.30%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 11:05
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 11:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -1.81%E -0.648%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 11:11
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 10:50
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 11:00
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 10:59
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 10:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.45%EV -13.04%E -5.26%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.45%EV -13.04%E -5.26%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 11:11
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.45%EV -13.04%E -5.26%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.16%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 11:10
Betsson🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.27%EV -4.27%E -1.56%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.72%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.01%EV -8.48%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 11:11
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -14.09%E -5.75%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.03%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 11:11
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.69%EV -6.02%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.80%EV -7.67%E -3.12%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.51%EV -7.38%E -2.18%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 11:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -7.07%E -2.67%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -1.35%E -0.376%K -0.521%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -8.83%E -3.40%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 11:10
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.57%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -14.09%E -5.75%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.35%EV -14.79%E -6.09%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.05%EV -8.05%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.60%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-25 11:10
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -5.32%E -1.97%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 11:00
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -8.83%E -3.40%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 11:11
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -8.83%E -3.40%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -12.33%E -4.93%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 10:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.27%EV -7.78%E -2.96%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.56%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 11:05
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -8.13%E -3.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 11:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -15.84%E -6.60%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 10:35
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.83%E -3.40%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -15.05%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.97%EV -11.63%E -4.62%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.50%EV -11.80%E -5.02%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-25 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 34.61%EV -9.53%E -3.69%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.49%EV -12.93%E -5.57%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.90%EV -9.03%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 10:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.13%EV -10.58%E -4.15%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.68%EV -15.55%E -6.91%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -12.31%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-25 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.18%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-10-25 11:11
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.18%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-10-25 11:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.18%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-10-25 11:11
Matchbook◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-10-25 11:11
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.28%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.61%1.3%2026-10-25 11:11
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-10-25 10:50