Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.76
assuming max odds 4.73
assuming max odds 4.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Feyenoord (Local): 54.89%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 22.12%; Draw: 22.99%. For AZ Alkmaar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.61%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.24%E -4.28%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.73I 21.14%NM 20.13%EV +4.61%E +0.976%K +1.24%G +0.057% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.51%EV -6.87%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV +3.95%E +0.841%K +1.07%G +0.042% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.47%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.54%EV +3.95%E +0.841%K +1.07%G +0.042% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.61%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.48%EV +3.95%E +0.841%K +1.07%G +0.042% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.22%EV -3.95%E -2.25%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.92%EV +2.18%E +0.472%K +0.603%G +0.013% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.86%EV -6.87%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -8.34%E -4.99%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV +1.74%E +0.378%K +0.483%G +0.008% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.30%EV -6.18%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.30%EV -6.18%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.30%EV -6.18%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.38%EV -8.89%E -5.35%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.38%EV -8.89%E -5.35%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.38%EV -8.89%E -5.35%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -0.473%E -0.105%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.86%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -1.58%E -0.355%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 16:33 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -2.68%E -0.610%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -8.34%E -4.99%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -2.68%E -0.610%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.94%EV -9.43%E -5.72%K -14.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -2.68%E -0.610%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.78%EV -10.53%E -6.46%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -3.79%E -0.871%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 16:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -7.24%E -4.28%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 16:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%EV -10.53%E -6.46%K -16.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 16:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -11.08%E -6.84%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%EV -9.17%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -11.08%E -6.84%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -4.90%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%EV -9.17%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.58%EV -3.40%E -1.93%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.44%EV -5.34%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.98%EV -3.88%E -0.929%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.98%EV -5.04%E -2.92%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.66%EV -5.59%E -3.25%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.21%EV -6.87%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.65%EV -11.63%E -7.22%K -19.07%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.08%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -11.47%E -2.98%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-10 15:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -5.59%E -3.25%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.23%EV -6.89%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.34%EV -7.79%E -1.94%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.40%EV -5.04%E -2.92%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV +1.18%E +0.267%K +0.346%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.40%EV -5.04%E -2.92%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV +1.18%E +0.267%K +0.346%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.04%E -2.92%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -5.59%E -3.25%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.96%EV -5.59%E -3.25%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -1.12%E -0.261%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -6.14%E -3.59%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.48%EV -8.34%E -4.99%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.33%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.07%EV -11.08%E -6.84%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17%EV -11.47%E -2.98%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%EV -11.63%E -7.22%K -19.07%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.02%EV -10.43%E -2.57%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -9.17%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-10 16:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -3.95%E -2.25%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -1.12%E -0.261%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.04%E -2.92%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -2.27%E -0.535%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.59%E -3.25%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.34%E -4.99%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.34%E -4.99%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -13.77%E -3.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -11.08%E -6.84%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.79%EV -8.89%E -5.35%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -12.64%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -13.74%E -3.52%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -8.89%E -5.35%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -13.74%E -3.52%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.02%E -2.01%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.40%EV -13.83%E -8.81%K -24.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.52%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.69%E -3.94%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -17.06%E -4.55%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -3.42%E -0.815%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.25% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.40% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.80% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.80% | 0.8% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.69% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.44% | 1.6% | 2026-10-10 16:35 |