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FC Volendam v Willem II
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Volendam (Local)
Prediction 42.45%2.36fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.71%42.53%42.44%43.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.212.2948.78%45.68%45.25%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Willem II (Visit)
Prediction 31.48%3.18fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -0.842%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%31.33%31.39%33.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.952.953.1237.31%33.94%33.90%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.07%3.84fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.56%26.14%26.17%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.523.503.7029.85%28.37%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Volendam (Local): 42.45%; Willem II (Visit): 31.48%; Draw: 26.07%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.12, with an expected value of -1.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 39.71%EV -2.79%E -1.22%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 33.93%EV -15.64%E -5.83%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.41%EV -3.22%E -1.41%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -3.04%E -0.988%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.20%EV -3.79%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-23 14:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.41%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.14%E -2.42%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 13:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.14%E -2.42%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 13:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 11:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 11:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 11:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.76%E -2.60%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -2.41%E -0.779%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 06:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.76%E -2.60%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -2.41%E -0.779%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 06:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.39%EV -6.19%E -2.80%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-23 14:27 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.61%E -3.01%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.74%E -4.06%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.74%E -4.06%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.74%E -4.06%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.74%E -4.06%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -10.01%E -4.72%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 25.76%EV -7.97%E -2.26%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 14:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.88%EV -10.43%E -4.94%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.67%EV -1.78%E -0.572%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 11:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.86%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -9.34%E -3.24%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 10:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.60%EV -12.13%E -5.86%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.84%EV -12.80%E -4.62%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.56%EV -10.05%E -2.91%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-23 14:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.42%EV -12.98%E -6.33%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.62%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -12.66%E -3.78%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-23 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.