The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 19:00 UTC

Final: FC Utrecht 2–3 NEC Nijmegen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 36.14%2.77fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.427%
Kelly +0.665%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.67%36.12%36.16%38.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.592.602.8042.55%38.66%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.923%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.05%39.37%39.42%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.342.372.4848.78%42.65%42.28%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV +0.281%
Edge +0.069%
Kelly +0.091%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.20%24.50%24.42%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.763.754.1029.85%26.62%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Utrecht (Local): 36.14%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 39.40%; Draw: 24.46%. For FC Utrecht (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.95%EV +1.20%E +0.427%K +0.665%G +0.008%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.27%EV -4.26%E -1.75%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.39%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.2%2026-11-08 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.95%EV +1.20%E +0.427%K +0.665%G +0.008%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.27%EV -4.26%E -1.75%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.39%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.2%2026-11-08 18:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.95%EV +1.20%E +0.427%K +0.665%G +0.008%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.27%EV -4.26%E -1.75%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.39%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.2%2026-11-08 18:19
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -3.14%E -1.17%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -3.87%E -1.58%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.07%EV -1.43%E -0.355%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-08 18:40
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -3.86%E -1.45%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.15%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.79%EV -5.34%E -1.38%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 17:50
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.36%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.14%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV +0.281%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 18:45
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.10%EV -2.29%E -0.923%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 18:45
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.57%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.95%EV -4.65%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 18:10
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.45%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -7.81%E -3.34%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -5.83%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.09%EV -8.59%E -3.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 18:19
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.09%EV -8.59%E -3.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 18:20
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.10%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.09%EV -8.59%E -3.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 18:50
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -4.22%E -1.59%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-08 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.44%EV -4.59%E -1.74%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV +0.281%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.44%EV -4.59%E -1.74%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV +0.281%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 18:45
BetAnything🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.44%EV -4.59%E -1.74%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV +0.281%E +0.069%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-08 18:45
Betsson🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -4.95%E -1.88%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -3.87%E -1.58%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.12%EV -12.44%E -3.47%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.92%EV -4.95%E -1.88%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.93%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -10.73%E -2.94%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-08 18:19
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 18:19
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 18:19
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.25%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -5.83%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 18:00
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 18:10
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-08 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.44%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-08 18:10
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-08 18:45
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -10.17%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 18:20
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -10.17%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -10.17%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 18:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -10.17%E -4.46%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 18:19
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -6.03%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -13.32%E -6.06%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-08 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.07%EV -6.75%E -2.62%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.11%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -7.84%E -3.07%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-08 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -7.84%E -3.07%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.69%EV -13.32%E -6.06%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -9.50%E -2.57%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.7%2026-11-08 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -7.84%E -3.07%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -11.35%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -13.17%E -3.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-08 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -7.84%E -3.07%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.81%EV -12.14%E -5.44%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -14.39%E -4.11%K -5.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-08 18:20
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 18:34
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -7.41%E -3.15%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-08 18:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 18:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 18:10
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 18:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.28%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 18:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.13%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.47%EV -14.50%E -6.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.40%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-08 18:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -11.45%E -4.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -3.47%E -1.42%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -4.61%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 18:40
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -11.45%E -4.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.38%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-08 18:28
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.92%EV -11.45%E -4.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.64%EV -12.53%E -5.65%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-08 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.73%EV -13.26%E -5.52%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -13.32%E -6.06%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.06%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.4%2026-11-08 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.26%EV -13.26%E -5.52%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.56%EV -13.32%E -6.06%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -11.95%E -3.32%K -4.60%G +0.000%14.9%2026-11-08 18:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.11%EV -15.07%E -6.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.25%EV -19.23%E -9.38%K -18.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.63%EV -18.06%E -5.39%K -7.69%G +0.000%21.2%2026-11-08 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.64%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.60%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.76%0.9%2026-11-08 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-11-08 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-11-08 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-11-08 18:50
Matchbook◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-11-08 18:50
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84%2.3%2026-11-08 18:50

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.