Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede v NEC Nijmegen

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

52%

25%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Prediction 52.46%1.91fair odd

EV -5.04%

Edge -2.79%

Kelly -6.22%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.46%52.46%52.46%52.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.811.811.811.8155.25%55.25%55.25%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 24.60%4.06fair odd

EV -5.04%

Edge -1.31%

Kelly -1.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.60%24.60%24.60%24.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.863.863.863.8625.91%25.91%25.91%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd

EV -5.04%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -1.61%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.94%22.94%22.94%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.144.144.144.1424.15%24.15%24.15%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 52.46%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 24.60%; Draw: 22.94%. For FC Twente Enschede (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -5.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.46%EV -5.04%E -2.79%K -6.22%G +0.000%	3.86I 25.91%NM 24.60%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%	4.14I 24.15%NM 22.94%EV -5.04%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-16 00:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.