The School of Odds
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FC Twente Enschede v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 13:30 UTC

Final: FC Twente Enschede 2–2 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Prediction 52.19%1.92fair odd
EV +0.204%
Edge +0.106%
Kelly +0.222%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.63%52.13%52.08%53.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.791.801.9263.69%55.78%55.56%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 25.42%3.93fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.606%
Kelly +0.806%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%25.46%25.55%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.603.604.0330.77%27.79%27.78%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.39%4.47fair odd
EV +0.757%
Edge +0.168%
Kelly +0.216%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.22%22.42%22.36%23.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.124.104.5027.40%24.30%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 52.19%; Ajax (Visit): 25.42%; Draw: 22.39%. For Ajax (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.78%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.02%EV +2.44%E +0.606%K +0.806%G +0.020%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.20%EV -2.38%E -0.545%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-08 13:20
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.20%EV -7.10%E -3.99%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV +0.409%E +0.103%K +0.139%G +0.001%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -7.08%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.33%EV -7.10%E -3.99%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -0.862%E -0.221%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.33%EV -4.84%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 13:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.75%EV -6.58%E -3.68%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -0.862%E -0.221%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-08 13:24
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -9.19%E -5.28%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -0.862%E -0.221%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 13:25
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.14%EV -8.15%E -4.63%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.10%EV -1.37%E -0.353%K -0.476%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.76%EV -7.98%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-08 13:05
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -1.48%E -0.337%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 12:34
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.44%EV -7.62%E -4.31%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -3.72%E -0.865%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 13:24
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -8.15%E -4.63%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-08 13:24
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -8.67%E -4.95%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 13:05
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.49%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.01%EV -2.39%E -0.622%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -4.39%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-08 13:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -2.64%E -0.690%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -1.48%E -0.337%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-08 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -2.64%E -0.690%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -1.48%E -0.337%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-08 12:35
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.08%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -2.64%E -0.690%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -1.48%E -0.337%K -0.436%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-08 12:35
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.40%E -0.896%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -7.62%E -4.31%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -3.40%E -0.896%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.32%EV -9.71%E -5.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-08 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -9.71%E -5.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -14.92%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-08 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%EV +0.204%E +0.106%K +0.222%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.77%EV +0.757%E +0.168%K +0.216%G +0.002%2.1%2026-11-08 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%EV +0.204%E +0.106%K +0.222%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.77%EV +0.757%E +0.168%K +0.216%G +0.002%2.1%2026-11-08 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -1.36%E -0.720%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV +0.757%E +0.168%K +0.216%G +0.002%2.9%2026-11-08 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -3.45%E -1.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-08 13:10
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 12:45
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 12:45
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 12:45
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.27%EV -7.62%E -4.31%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 13:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 13:10
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 12:50
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-08 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -10.23%E -5.95%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.39%EV -14.41%E -8.79%K -22.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.32%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.28%EV -12.01%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-08 13:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.83%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.97%EV -9.32%E -2.30%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-08 12:30
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -3.72%E -0.865%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-08 12:30
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 13:09
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.06%E -3.37%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-08 13:10
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -11.28%E -6.63%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -14.92%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-11-08 13:10
Neds🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -1.88%E -1.00%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -12.30%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 12:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.85%EV -11.28%E -6.63%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -12.30%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -12.68%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-08 13:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.45%E -1.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 13:20
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.45%E -1.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 13:20
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -3.45%E -1.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -5.96%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 13:20
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.25%EV -3.97%E -2.16%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 13:20
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -11.28%E -6.63%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-08 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.40%EV -13.37%E -8.05%K -20.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.02%EV -11.56%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-08 13:20
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -14.84%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -8.20%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-08 13:20
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -5.01%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -14.84%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -11.56%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-08 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 52.67%EV -18.06%E -11.50%K -31.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.68%EV -14.84%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.65%EV -18.28%E -5.01%K -6.90%G +0.000%20.9%2026-11-08 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -3.45%E -1.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -16.11%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -1.48%E -0.337%K -0.436%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.98%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -16.11%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-08 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.98%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -16.11%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-08 13:20
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.98%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -16.11%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.44%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-08 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.90%EV -6.58%E -3.68%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -17.39%E -5.35%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -11.56%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-08 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.18%EV -7.62%E -4.31%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.39%E -5.35%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.49%EV -11.56%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-08 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%0.9%2026-11-08 13:25
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75%1.0%2026-11-08 13:20
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-11-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-11-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-11-08 13:00
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-11-08 13:20

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